Georgetown Security Law Brief

US rues Russian missiles sent to Damascus

05/18/13:  The BBC reports the US has chided Russia for what it calls an "unfortunate decision" to send missiles to the Syrian government. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Martin Dempsey said the shipment "will embolden the regime and prolong the suffering" that has killed 80,000. The sophisticated anti-ship missiles could be used to counter any future foreign military intervention, US officials told The New York Times. Some 1.5 million people have fled the conflict, says the UN refugee agency. Most have fled to Jordan and Lebanon, but not all have been registered yet, meaning the true total is likely to be far higher, according to the UNHCR. Meanwhile, Syria's national production has dropped by 40% and the number of people living below the poverty line has risen from two million to five million in just two years, according to the man in charge of the UN's plans for reconstructing Syria after the conflict. Abdullah al-Dardari, a former deputy prime minister in President Bashar al-Assad's administration, told the BBC that rebuilding what has been destroyed would cost up to $80bn.

Syria crisis: Russia 'sends sophisticated weapons'

05/17/13:  The BBC reports Russia has sent sophisticated anti-ship missiles to Syria, US media report.  The New York Times quotes unnamed US officials as saying the missiles could be used to counter any potential future foreign military intervention in Syria. Without confirming details, Russia's foreign minister said Russian supplies did not break any international rules. It comes amid growing alarm that chemical weapons may be being used in Syria, something US President Barack Obama has said would be "a red line". Meanwhile efforts continue to arrange an international conference on Syria. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met Mr Lavrov in Sochi on Friday to discuss the plans for the conference, which would aim to bring together the Syrian opposition and members of President Bashar al-Assad's government.

ICC launches inquiry into Israeli raid on Gaza flotilla

05/16/13:  The BBC reports the International Criminal Court has launched a preliminary inquiry into an Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla which left nine Turkish activists dead. ICC chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said it would establish whether there were grounds for a full investigation. The move follows a request from the Comoros islands, in which one of the vessels was registered. The boats were trying to transport aid supplies to Gaza in May 2010. The Free Gaza Flotilla, which had more than 600 pro-Palestinian activists aboard several ships, was trying to break Israel's naval blockade. The activists were killed when Israeli commandos boarded the lead flotilla vessel, Mavi Marmara. Israel's assault on the Mavi Marmara drew widespread foreign criticism and strained its ties with Turkey. A UN inquiriy in 2011 found the Israeli commandos' actions were "excessive and unreasonable". However, it also found Israel's naval blockade "was imposed as a legitimate security measure" which "complied with the requirements of international law". Israel says the blockade is necessary to prevent weapons and ammunition being smuggled to the Gaza Strip, which has been governed by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas since 2007. The ICC investigates and tries cases of war crimes and crimes against humanity in countries that are unwilling or unable to prosecute them on their own, often at the request of ratifying states.

Weapons, ammunition shipments slowing to Syria’s moderate rebel factions

05/14/13:  The Miami Herald reports disagreements among the countries backing the rebels in Syria have led to a drop in weapons shipments, leaving rebels vulnerable to a government military offensive. The precise nature of the dispute is unclear, but one of the effects is that Saudi Arabia has stopped sending weapons via Turkey and has shifted its supply channels to northern Jordan. The result has been fewer guns and bullets for the rebels in northern and central portions of the country. The lack of military supplies has shown in the rebels’ lackluster performance against a government offensive that now threatens the city of Qusayr, which has been in rebel hands for the past year. Several villages near Qusayr have fallen to government forces in recent weeks along a smuggling route that rebels had long used to move supplies and people into Syria from Lebanon. Yazed al Hasan, a spokesman for the Farouq Battalions, a rebel group that began in the central Syrian province of Homs but whose influence now extends to the Turkish border, where it controls two crossing points, said the consequences of the drop in shipments from Turkey was clear. “The shortage of ammunition means losing the Qusayr front,” he said. He said Farouq had more than 1,000 fighters in Qusayr, which is now largely surrounded by Syrian soldiers and pro-government militia. Last week, the US State Department issued a statement expressing concern that the Syrian government had dropped leaflets telling “all civilians to evacuate or be treated as combatants.”

Commentary: Should we arm the Syrian rebels?

05/11/13:  Foreign Policy published an article by Rosa Brooks discussing arming Syrian rebels. As tempting as it is, past experience suggests that arming the Syrian opposition could be every bit as hazardous, difficult and uncertain as putting US boots on the ground. I don't mean to suggest that arming the Syrian opposition should be taken off the table entirely. But if we proceed, we should do so only with the utmost caution: After all, history suggests that US efforts to arm insurgents tend not to end well. Like so many global tragedies, this is one with no simple solution. It's a mess, and any "solution" will be messy, as well. But as with any proposed intervention with humanitarian motives, "do no harm" should be our first priority. If we can help, we should, even if there is some risk involved -- but if our actions are likely to just make things worse, we should refrain, painful as that is.

EMT at fertilizer plant blast faces charge of possessing bomb parts

05/11/13: The New York Times reports Texas authorities said on Friday that they had opened a criminal investigation into last month’s deadly explosion at a fertilizer plant that killed 14 people and injured some 200 others. The announcement came hours after a paramedic who responded to the explosion was arrested on a charge of possessing the components of a pipe bomb, though law enforcement officials declined to say whether the charge was related to the blast.  Earlier Friday, Bryce Reed, 31, an emergency medical technician who has said he helped evacuate people after the April 17 blast, was taken into federal custody, according to the United States attorney’s office. Mr. Reed appeared briefly in federal court in Waco on Friday but did not enter a plea, the authorities said. An affidavit sworn out by Douglas J. Kunze, a special agent with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the authorities had found the parts of a pipe bomb, including potassium nitrate powder, which is used in fertilizers and gunpowder. Though Mr. Reed was not in possession of the materials, he admitted to having possessed them, according to the affadavit. Investigators have said the explosion was caused by ammonium nitrate, which was being stored at the fertilizer plant, but have not said whether a fire that preceded the blast had ignited the chemical. Ammonium nitrate, which is commonly used as a fertilizer, is difficult to ignite if handled carefully and properly stored, but it has also been used in a number of terrorist attacks, including the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.

Russia says no new plan to sell air defense systems to Syria

05/10/13:  Reuters reports Russia's foreign minister said on Friday Moscow had no new plans to sell an advanced air defense system to Syria, but left open the possibility it could deliver such systems under an existing contract. The Wall Street Journal this week reported that Israel had informed the United States a Russian deal was imminent to sell S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. That would significantly boost Syria's ability to stave off outside intervention in its civil war, such as the air strikes launched by Israel this month. Asked by a journalist in the Polish capital about the reports of a missile deal, Sergei Lavrov said: "Russia is not planning to sell. Russia already sold them a long time ago. It has signed the contracts and is completing deliveries, in line with the agreed contracts, of equipment which is anti-aircraft technology." The question referred to S-300 systems, but in his reply the minister did not specify whether the items already being delivered were S-300 complexes or another system. Lavrov, in Warsaw for a meeting on regional cooperation with his German and Polish counterparts, said the deliveries were in line with international law and for self-defense only. Russia is Syria's main arms supplier and has continued fulfilling defense contracts despite the civil war. Moscow, along with China, has blocked moves in the United Nations for international intervention to halt the bloodshed in Syria.

US government orders removal of Defcad 3D-gun designs

05/10/13: The BBC reports the US government has demanded designs for a 3D-printed gun be taken offline. The order to remove the blueprints for the plastic gun comes after they were downloaded more than 100,000 times. The US State Department wrote to the gun's designer, Defense Distributed, suggesting publishing them online may breach arms-control regulations. Although the files have been removed from the company's Defcad site, it is not clear whether this will stop people accessing the blueprints. They were being hosted by the Mega online service and may still reside on its servers. Also, many links to copies of the blueprints have been uploaded to file-sharing site the Pirate Bay, making them widely available. The Pirate Bay has also publicised its links to the files via social news site Reddit suggesting many more people will get hold of the blueprints. The Office of Defense Trade Controls Compliance emailed Mr Wilson a document demanding the designs be "removed from public access" until he could prove he had not broken laws governing shipping weapons overseas by putting the files online and letting people outside the US download them. Mr Wilson said that Defense Distributed had complied with the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) rules. He said the rules were pretty convoluted, but he believed his project was exempt as Defense Distributed had been set up specifically to meet requirements that exempted it from ITAR. "Our gun operations were registered with ITAR." He said the letter was unclear in that the Office was conducting a "review" yet at the same time he had to remove the files. He welcomed the US government's intervention, saying it would highlight the issue of whether it was possible to stop the spread of 3D-printed weapons.

US fears Russia may sell air-defense system to Syria

05/09/13:  The New York Times reports the US, which is trying to bring Syrian rebels and the Syrian government to the negotiating table, is now increasingly worried that Russia plans to sell a sophisticated air defense system to Syria, American officials said Wednesday.  Russia has a long history of selling arms to the Syrians and has a naval base in the country. But the delivery of the Russian S-300 missile batteries would represent a major qualitative advancement in Syria’s air defenses. The system is regarded as highly effective and would limit the ability of the United States and other nations to operate over Syrian airspace or impose a no-fly zone. It is also able to track and fire missiles at multiple targets, including aircraft and some missiles. “There are concerns that this might happen,” said a senior United States official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, referring to the possible delivery of the S-300. A Western intelligence service has also warned that the Russians may soon send S-300 air defense batteries to Syria, said another American official who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports. Russia and Iran have supported Mr. Assad politically and have provided military support — support that American officials say has fortified Mr. Assad’s determination to hang on to power. American officials had been concerned that Russia might sell S-300 air defense batteries to Iran. But after the United States and Israel raised alarms, the weapons were not provided to the Iranians. 

Syrian rebels used Sarin nerve gas, not Assad’s regime: U.N. official

05/07/13:  The Washington Times reports testimony from victims strongly suggests it was the rebels, not the Syrian government, that used Sarin nerve gas during a recent incident in the revolution-wracked nation, a senior UN diplomat said Monday.  Carla de Ponte, a member of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, told Swiss TV there were “strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof,” that rebels seeking to oust Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad had used the nerve agent. But she said her panel had not yet seen any evidence of Syrian government forces using chemical weapons, according to the BBC, but she added that more investigation was needed. Damascus has recently facing growing Western accusations that its forces used such weapons, which President Obama has described as crossing a red line. But Ms. del Ponte's remarks may serve to shift the focus of international concern.

Israel bombs Syria as the US weighs options

05/04/13:  The New York Times reports Israel aircraft bombed a target in Syria overnight Thursday, an Obama administration official said Friday night, as United States officials said they were considering military options, including carrying out their own airstrikes. American officials did not provide details on the target of the Israeli strike. The Associated Press quoted Israeli officials Saturday as saying the target of the raid was a shipment of advanced missiles bound for the Hezbollah Shiite militia in Lebanon. While saying the shipment did not include chemical arms, the official described the missiles as “game changing,” an apparent reference to the capability of the missiles. In late January, Israel carried out airstrikes against SA-17 antiaircraft weapons, which the Israelis feared were about to be moved to Hezbollah. Israel has been worried that chemical weapons and advanced arms might be transferred to Hezbollah from Syria, and the Israeli military has made clear that it is prepared to take action to stop such shipments. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has long had a close relationship with Hezbollah, and Syria has been a gateway for shipping Iranian weapons to the militia. Hezbollah has sent trainers and advisers to Syria to help Mr. Assad with his war against the Syrian opposition, American officials say, and Syrian opposition officials report that Hezbollah fighters are also involved in the conflict. The Lebanese government confirmed on Saturday the Israeli warplanes flew over its airspace overnight Thursday, circling over Beirut and its suburbs, although it was not immediately clear if they were the same jets that carried out the raid in Syria.

Australian military to boost air power to focus on Indo-Pacific

05/04/13:  Reuters reports Australia announced a significant boost to its military air power on Friday, committing to buy up to new 100 Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, as it shifts its focus back to the Indo-Pacific as China and India beef up forces. After more than a decade of having forces first in Iraq, and then Afghanistan, Australia wants to focus on the military challenges closer to home, in line with US President Barack Obama's 2011 "pivot" towards the Asia-Pacific. In a new defense strategy, Australia reinforces that the United States remains its closest ally, but also struck a conciliatory tone towards top trading partner China, noting its rising defense capabilities are a natural outcome from its growing economy.

Israeli official: Syria using chemical weapons

04/23/13:  CNN reports the Syrian government is using chemical weapons against rebel forces, the head of the Israel Defense Forces' intelligence research and analysis division said Tuesday. "In all likelihood, they used sarin gas," Brig. Gen. Itai Brun told a conference in Tel Aviv. This comes as a civil war between the government and rebels rages across Syria, which borders Israel. One of the main characteristics of the recent events in Syria is the increasing use of ground-to-ground missiles, rockets and chemical weapons by the Syrian regime," Brun said, according to quotes provided by the IDF. "According to our professional assessment, the regime has used deadly chemical weapons against armed rebels on a number of occasions in the past few months. For instance, on March 19, 2013, victims suffered from shrunken pupils, foaming from the mouth and other symptoms which indicate the use of deadly chemical weapons. The type of chemical weapons was likely sarin, as well as neutralizing and nonlethal chemical weapons." The accusation came a day after Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, in a news conference in Jerusalem with US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, appeared less certain. Asked about possible chemical weapons use in Syria, Yaalon said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said that allowing any "rogue elements to put their hands on chemical weapons from the Syrian chemical arsenal" would represent a red line.

 

UN detects possible signs of past North Korean nuke test

04/23/13: The Miami Herald reports a UN agency tasked with looking for signs of nuclear explosions says its monitoring stations have detected radioactive gases that could be linked to North Korea's Feb. 12 test. CTBTO says stations in Japan and Russia have picked up ''significant" traces of noble gases that accompany a nuclear explosion and say they ''could be attributed" to the North's test. A statement from the Vienna-based CTBTO Tuesday said the Japanese station is located around 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from the test site. It says lower levels were picked up by the Russian site at Ussuriysk, without giving its location in relation to the site. It says the two types of xenon radioactive isotopes detected ''provide reliable information on the nuclear nature of the source."

Israel ready to act on Syria weapons, warns Netanyahu

04/18/13:  The BBC reports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the BBC that Israel has a right to prevent weapons from falling into the wrong hands in Syria. He said that if terrorists seized anti-aircraft and chemical weapons they could be "game changers" in the region. There have been growing calls for the international community to arm rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad. But there is increasing concern that Islamist militants could use such weapons to further their own causes. Israel has said its policy is not to get involved in the Syrian conflict. But in recent months it has retaliated following Syrian fire into Israeli-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. Israel first occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and later annexed the territory in a move that is not internationally recognised. Mr Netanyahu, in an exclusive interview with the BBC's Lyse Doucet, said Israel's concern was "which rebels and which weapons?" "The main arms of concern to us are the arms that are already in Syria - these are anti-aircraft weapons, these are chemical weapons and other very, very dangerous weapons that could be game changers," he said. "They will change the conditions, the balance of power in the Middle East. They could present a terrorist threat on a worldwide scale. It is definitely our interest to defend ourselves, but we also think it is in the interest of other countries."

Diplomats: Iran ups nuke technology

04/18/13:  The Washington Times reports technicians upgrading Iran's main uranium enrichment facility have tripled their installations of high-tech machines that could be used in a nuclear weapons program to more than 600 in the past three months, diplomats said Wednesday. They say the machines are not yet producing enriched uranium and some may be only partially installed. Still, the move is the latest sign that 10 years of diplomatic efforts have failed to persuade Tehran to curb its uranium enrichment. Instead, Iran continues to increase its capacities. The installations also suggest that Iran possesses both the technology to mass-produce centrifuges that can enrich much faster than its present machines and the ability to evade international sanctions meant to keep it from getting materials it needs to do so. Iran insists it has no interest in nuclear weapons and says it’s enriching uranium only for nuclear power and other nonmilitary applications. Iran also asserts it has a right to do so under international law.

Army policeman gets 16 years for trying to sell secrets to Russia

04/16/13:  The Washington Times reports a military policeman serving in the US Army was sentenced to 16 years in prison and given a dishonorable discharge for trying to sell secrets to an agent he believed was a Russian spy. Spc. William Colton Millay pleaded guilty to the spying charge last month, The Associated Press reported. A panel of eight military officials handed down the ruling Tuesday. Prosecutors said Millay was a white supremacist, sick and tired of the military and his country, and didn’t care that his sale of secrets would put his fellow soldiers in harm’s way, AP said. Defense lawyers countered that Millay was emotionally immature and that his attempt at espionage was aimed only at getting him some attention, AP reported. During testimony, an FBI official said Millay “expressed his disgust with the U.S. military” and offered to work for Russia. Millay said he could provide information on America’s Warlock Duke jamming system, which is used by the military to scan for roadside bombs, the agent testified, as AP reported.  Millay ultimately was arrested when he traded an envelope of information to the man he believed was a Russian official for $3,000, AP reported.

Iran's president visits uranium-rich Niger

04/16/13:  The Miami Herald reports Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is visiting the uranium-rich West African nation of Niger, although officials discounted that the mineral was the reason for the visit. Niger's Foreign Affairs Minister Mohamed Bazoum downplayed international speculation that Iran had come in search of uranium, saying: "I don't think that's the goal of this visit." Niger obeys international regulations on selling uranium, said Bazoum, who added that it would not be legal to provide uranium to Iran. The Iranian leader arrived Monday in Niger's capital, where he was greeted by President Mahamadou Issoufou. The two-day stop in Niger is the second on Ahmadinejad's trip to West Africa. He already has visited Benin and is due to stop in Ghana before returning home. The West has imposed several rounds of punishing sanctions on Iran, hoping to force it to scale back its uranium enrichment program, suspecting it might aim to produce nuclear weapons. Iran has refused, insisting its program is for peaceful purposes.

UN panel: Libyan weapons spread at alarming rate

04/11/13:  The Miami Herald reports Libyan weapons are spreading at "an alarming rate" to new territory in west Africa and the eastern Mediterranean including Syria and the Gaza Strip where they are fueling conflicts and increasing the arsenals of armed groups and terrorists, a UN panel said. In a report to the UN Security Council circulated Tuesday, the panel said cases of illicit transfers from Libya in violation of a UN arms embargo that have been proven and are still under investigation involve more than 12 countries and include heavy and light weapons such as portable air defense systems, explosives, mines, and small arms and ammunition. Since the uprising that ousted dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, the panel said, "Libya has over the past two years become a significant and attractive source of weaponry in the region." It said civilians and militias remain in control of most weapons in Libya, adding that "the lack of an effective security system remains one of the primary obstacles to securing military materiel and controlling the borders." "In the past 12 months, the proliferation of weapons from Libya has continued at a worrying rate and has spread into new territory: West Africa, the Levant and, potentially, even the Horn of Africa," the panel said. "Illicit flows from the country are fueling existing conflicts in Africa and the Levant and enriching the arsenals of a range of non-state actors, including terrorist groups." The five-member expert panel made 28 visits to 15 countries in Africa, Europe and the Middle East including 10 visits to Libya. The 94-page report details arms trafficking cases that violate the embargo imposed after the 2011 uprising began as well as efforts to track down the financial assets of individuals and companies linked to Gadhafi and his regime that are on the UN blacklist. The panel said the increased availability of Libyan weapons has empowered a variety of "non-state actors" engaged in conflicts against national authorities, and it expressed concern that extremist armed groups, who are the best financed, are strengthening their position.

Defiant Iran goes forth with 2 nuclear projects

04/09/13:  The Washington Times reports Iran put the finishing touch on its latest round of nuclear talks with world powers with a symbolic face-slap and on Tuesday jumpstarted two key nuclear-related projects. Iran-run media reported that the nation has started operations at Saghand and at Ardakan. The Associated Press said the sites represent two of Iran’s biggest uranium operations: Saghand is a uranium mine, and Ardakan is an ore concentrate production plant. As AP reported, Iran already has mines and processing facilities in operation. But those other facilities are much smaller than the ones at Saghand and Ardakan. And the West fears starting operations at these two central Iran sites gives the country greater ability to make the materials needed to enrich nuclear fuel - to ultimately, warhead grade levels. Iran is perceived by the United States and U.S. allies as bypassing U.N. sanctions against its purchase of nuclear materials by developing its own nuclear enrichment program to a level that allows it to construct its own — a charge that Iranian officials deny. Iran maintains its nuclear enrichment is for peaceable, energy-related purposes only.

Obama approves US military assistance to Somalia

04/09/13:  The BBC reports  President Barack Obama has cleared the way for the US to provide military assistance to Somalia as it rebuilds itself following years of conflict. Mr Obama issued a memo to Secretary of State John Kerry saying it would "strengthen the security of the United States and promote world peace". The move now gives Mr Kerry the option to provide defence aid to Somalia. Last month, the UN Security Council agreed to partially lift its ban on selling arms to Somalia for a year. The decision allows Somalia's new government to buy light arms to help it in its fight against the al-Qaeda-aligned al-Shabab Islamist militant group. Some countries had been reluctant to ease the ban for fear of fuelling insecurity in Somalia. But a lifting of the embargo - the world's oldest, having been imposed in 1992 - had been pushed for by the new government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Iran says it offers new plan for nuclear program

04/05/13:  The New York Times reports as negotiations resumed here on Friday between Iran and the six world powers demanding that it curb its nuclear program, Iran said it had put forward a new “comprehensive proposal” that it hoped would “establish a new bedrock for cooperation.” In a sign that the talks could be headed toward a quick dead-end, the Iranian statement was depicted as a bewildering surprise to the other negotiators, who said they had not received any concrete new proposal. A Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Iranian remarks essentially echoed a position articulated at talks in Moscow last June. "We are somewhat puzzled by the Iranians’ characterization of what they presented at this morning’s plenary,” the official said. “There were some interesting but not fully explained general comments on our ideas.” Talks continued in the afternoon.

Isotope seized in Georgia too small for dirty bomb

04/05/13:  The Miami Herald reports three men are under arrest in Georgia on charges of illegally possessing a radioactive isotope that can be used in a dirty bomb, but authorities say they didn't have enough to make one of the devices. Police say the three Georgians were holding Americium-241. That is one of the substances widely seen as a possible component in explosive devices aimed at spreading radioactive particles that would kill or sicken people. Grigol Basilia, the energy ministry's top official for security issues, on Thursday declined to say how much of the isotope was seized, but said it was "not enough to build a so-called dirty bomb."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/04/3322801/isotope-seized-in-georgia-too.html#storylink=cpy

UN overwhelmingly approves first-ever global arms trade treaty

04/02/13:  Reuters reports the 193-nation UN General Assembly on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved the first-ever treaty on global arms trade that seeks to regulate the $70 billion international trade in conventional arms ranging from light weapons to battle tanks and warships. There were 154 votes in favor, 3 against and 23 abstentions.  Iran, Syria, and North Korea last week prevented a treaty drafting conference at UNheadquarters from reaching the required consensus to adopt the treaty. That left delegations that support it no choice but to turn to the General Assembly to adopt it.

Double-digit inflation worsens in Iran

04/02/13:  The New York Times reports Iran’s double-digit inflation rate worsened for the sixth consecutive month in March, the government said on Monday, in what appeared to be an implicit acknowledgment that international sanctions linked to the disputed Iranian nuclear program are causing some economic harm. The government’s statistics office said the rate increased in March to an annualized 31.5 percent, compared with 30.2 percent in February and 26.4 percent a year earlier, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Mehr report did not offer an explanation for the increase except to specify that much of it was in the categories of food, beverages and tobacco. Many economists say the real rate could be at least double the official rate, partly because it does not fully take into account the prices of many imported goods, which have become prohibitively expensive. The main reason is the severe depreciation of the rial, Iran’s national currency, as the sanctions that have limited Central Bank activities and oil exports have taken hold. Some experts believe the Iranian inflation calculation deliberately understates the actual rate in order to present a public face of resistance to the coercive pressures inflicted by the sanctions, which have been imposed largely by the United States and European Union.

NATO eyes progress with Russia after US cancels missile shield

04/01/13: Reuters reports a top NATO official says the Alliance hopes a US change to global missile defenses will dispel Russian concern and foster cooperation on an issue that has long strained relations.  “The change in the US plans ... just simply makes the situation much less ambiguous,” Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow said.  “There is now no reason for concern that the system going into Europe will have any effect whatever on Russia’s strategic deterrent.”  Russia has said US missile shield plans could erode its nuclear deterrent, but has softened criticism since Washington announced on March 16 that it would station fourteen missile interceptors in Alaska in response to North Korean nuclear threats and at the same time forgo a new type of interceptor that would have been deployed in Europe.

Iraq says will increase searches of Iran-Syria flights in its airspace after US criticism

04/01/13: The blog Space War reports Iraq will step up searches of Iranian flights over its airspace to Syria, days after US Secretary of State John Kerry publicly criticized Baghdad for turning a blind eye to them.  But while Prime Minister Nuri al-Malik’s spokesman spoke of newly tightened restrictions, the head of Iraq’s civil aviation authority acknowledged that no planes had been searched since October.  “Because of a lot of information which referred to transportation of weapons, we have increased the activity of inspections,” Maliki spokesman Ali Mussawi said Saturday.  “We will carry out more random searches, to be assured that there is no weapons transfer.”  Kerry said in Baghdad that he “made very clear to [Maliki] that the overflights from Iran are in fact helping to sustain [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad and his regime.”

UN treaty to control arms sales hits snag

03/29/13:  The New York Times reports the global effort to regulate the sale of conventional weapons suffered a significant but not fatal setback on Thursday after Iran, Syria and North Korea opposed the draft Arms Trade Treaty, blocking the consensus needed for passage after years of arduous negotiations. Achieving consensus among all 193 member states of the United Nations is considered a monumental task, but it was hoped that it would be possible in this case because so many countries supported the idea of trying to regulate the $70 billion annual industry at the root of much death and destruction. The treaty would require states exporting conventional weapons to develop criteria that would link exports to avoiding human rights abuses, terrorism and organized crime. It would also ban shipments if they were deemed harmful to women and children. After Iran and North Korea voted against the draft treaty, Peter Woolcott, the Australian ambassador who was the president of the treaty conference, suspended the meeting. When it resumed, Syria voted against the treaty as well. In the absence of consensus, it was expected that the treaty would be sent to the General Assembly as early as next week for approval. That is considered a weaker, but no less binding, manner of getting it passed. After General Assembly passage, the treaty would still require ratification by 50 member states before it could take effect.

 

US jails Chinese engineer for exporting trade secrets

03/26/13:  The BBC reports a US court has sentenced a Chinese national to more than five years in prison for illegally exporting military trade secrets to China. Liu Sixing, who formerly worked in US company L-3 Communications, was accused of taking information on US missile, rocket and drone technology to China. He was convicted of exporting military information, possessing stolen trade secrets, and lying to the authorities. Liu says he did not break the law, or intend to pass secrets to China. Liu Sixing, who was also known as Steve Liu, worked in L-3 Communications' space and navigation unit in New Jersey from 2009-2010 as a senior engineer. Prosecutors say he stole thousands of computer files in 2010, and took them to China on his personal computer, where he gave presentations about the technology he was working on to universities and conferences linked to the Chinese government. Prosecutors say he transported the files, which included information on the performance and design of guidance systems for missiles, rockets and unmanned drones, in the hope that it would help him gain future employment in China. Technical military data covered by US export regulations cannot be taken out of the country without a license.

China reportedly to buy Russian submarines, fighter jets

03/26/13:  NPR reports China has reportedly signed a deal to buy new submarines and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, the first such arms deal in nearly a decade. The agreement, long in the works, was inked during last week's visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow, according to China Central Television CCTV.  But, somewhat oddly, Russia's ITAR-TASS has denied the reports. According to Chinese media, the agreement was for four Amur-1650 class diesel-electric submarines and 24 Su-35s, one of Russia's most advanced fighters. The submarines would supplement China's existing fleet of about 65 subsurface vessels, including indigenously built nuclear and ballistic missile submarines. China has also produced several of its own variants of Russia's Sukhoi Su-27, Su-30 and Su-33 warplanes and is in the process of developing its own stealth fighters. The BBC quotes China's People's Daily as saying the advanced Su-35s from Russia would "effectively reduce pressure on China's air defense" as China moved ahead with its stealth planes. The reports come as Beijing and Moscow have moved closer in an apparent desire to counterbalance U.S. interests in Asia and Europe and The China Daily described Xi's visit to Russia as a "well-deserved riposte to Washington for America's military 'pivot' to Asia. Xi is executing China's own 'pivot' — the visit to Moscow to cement ties with" Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the BBC.

Israel says Gaza blockade will continue despite Turkey reconciliation

03/24/13: Reuters reports Israeli officials said Sunday that Tel Aviv did not commit to ending its Gaza blockade as part of reconciliation with Turkey and could clamp down even harder on the Palestinian enclave if security is threatened.  After a US-brokered fence-mending announcement on Friday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Israel had met his demands to apologize for killing nine Turks aboard a Gaza-bound activist ship in 2010.  But although Erdogan has also insisted on fully ending the blockade, Israeli officials said Hamas, the Islamist faction that governs Gaza, was still trying to bring in arms, and thus “the blockade is as necessary as always.”  Although Israel has relaxed curbs on overland civilian imports to impoverished Gaza, it signaled that the naval cordon, imposed during a 2008-2009 offensive, would remain.

US, Netherlands in nuclear security pact

03/24/13: The blog Space War reports the United States and the Netherlands say they’ve expanded their cooperation to reduce global nuclear and radiological threats.  Under an agreement signed with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s Office of Global Threat Reduction, (GTRI) the Netherlands will contribute $650,000 to GTRI’s efforts to secure and remove vulnerable radiological material.  This is Amsterdam’s second major cooperative activity with GTRI, and the third time it has partnered with NNSA’s nuclear nonproliferation programs.  Under the new agreement, the Netherlands financial contribution will support GTRI’s current work in Kazakhstan on projects related to the search, removal, and physical protection of radiological material.  The NNSA is a semiautonomous agency within the US Department of Energy responsible for enhancing national security through the application of nuclear science.

Senate votes 53-46 to stop US from joining UN Arms Trade Treaty

03/23/13:  The Hill reports in the last batch of amendment votes to the budget, the Senate voted on several foreign policy proposals. Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) introduced an amendment that would prevent the United States from entering into the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty in order to uphold the Second Amendment. His amendment passed on a 53-46 vote. Republicans have been critical of President Obama’s decision to consider the treaty, although Obama has said he would not vote for anything that would violate the Second Amendment. The UN Arms Trade Treaty would regulate international arms sales. Negotiations end on March 28. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) offered an alternative amendment that clarified that under current US law, treaties don’t trump the Constitution and that the United States should not agree to any arms treaty that violates the Second Amendment rights. His amendment passed by voice vote.

China, Pakistan reach secret nuclear reactor deal for Pakistan

03/22/13:  The Washington Times reports China and Pakistan reached a formal agreement last month to construct a third nuclear reactor at Chashma that the Obama administration says will violate Beijing’s promises under an international anti-nuclear weapons accord. According to US intelligence and diplomatic officials, the secret agreement for the Chashma 3 reactor was signed in Beijing during the visit by a delegation from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission from Feb. 15 to 18. The agreement calls for the state-run China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC) to construct a 1,000-megawatt power plant at Chashma, located in the northern province of Punjab, where two earlier Chinese reactors were built. China’s government last month issued an internal notice to officials within its nuclear establishment and to regional political leaders urging care to avoid any leaks of information about the nuclear sale that Beijing expects will be controversial, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. The reactor deal had been in the works for several years and prompted high-level US government efforts to block the sale because of concerns it will boost Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program.

Syria unrest: UN probes 'chemical weapons' in Aleppo

03/21/13:  The BBC reports the UN is to investigate the possible use of chemical weapons in an attack in Syria, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has announced. The investigation will focus on an incident in Khan al-Assal, Aleppo province, when Damascus says rebel forces used chemical weapons. But the rebels accuse the government of staging the attack. The US has urged the UN to look into "any and all credible allegations" of use of the weapons. Only a handful of countries have failed to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which internationally bans their use. Syria is one of them. It is believed to have stockpiles of mustard gas and the highly toxic nerve agent sarin.

Nuclear states divided on India joining export control group

03/21/13:  Reuters reports the United States and three other big powers this week argued for allowing nuclear-armed India into an atomic export control group, but China and several European states appeared doubtful about the move, diplomats said on Wednesday. They said the divisions were in evidence during closed-door talks of the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group on the sensitive issue of whether India could join and become the NSG's only member that is outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, France, Britain and Russia were among those which backed membership for India - Asia's third-largest economy - while smaller European states such as Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland had reservations, the envoys said. China stressed the need for equal treatment in South Asia, an apparent reference to its ally Pakistan which is also outside the NPT and has also tested atomic bombs, they said. One diplomat said Japan also appeared lukewarm on the idea. The tone of Monday's informal debate in Vienna suggested that the controversial issue will not be ready for a decision at the NSG's next annual plenary session, to be held in the Czech capital of Prague in June. NSG decisions are made by consensus.

Negotiators for Arms Trade Treaty discuss regulation of ammunition

03/19/13:  The New York Times reports negotiators at the United Nations began a final round of talks on Monday aimed at completing a treaty to regulate the international trade in conventional weapons. Objections by the United States and other major weapons exporters prevented an agreement. The United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, lamented what he called the lack of regulatory controls for the import and export of conventional weapons, asking why “there are common standards for the global trade in armchairs but not the global trade in arms.” One of the most contentious issues was whether ammunition should be included in the scope of the treaty. Anna McDonald, a representative of Oxfam, which is pushing for strong treaty, said her group wanted strict and specific language that would regulate ammunition. Thomas Mason, a representative of the World Forum on Shooting Activities, a group that represents firearms makers and users, said the sheer volume of ammunition produced made such monitoring impractical.

253,000 US guns smuggled to Mexico annually, study finds

03/19/13:  The Miami Herald reports some 2.2 percent of all U.S. gun sales are made to smuggling rings that take firearms to Mexico, a scale of illegal trafficking that’s “much higher than widely assumed,” an academic study released Monday found. An average of 253,000 weapons purchased in the United States head south of the border each year, according to the study by four scholars at the University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute and the Igarape Institute, a research center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Profit margins at many gun stores are razor thin, and thousands of U.S. gun vendors would go out of business without the illicit traffic to Mexico, said Topher McDougal, an economist educated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who’s one of the study’s authors. The study’s conclusions are likely to add to controversy over what role U.S. weapons smugglers play in Mexico’s drug violence. Mexican officials have long blamed lax gun laws in the United States for the availability of weapons in Mexico, which has only one gun store and considers gun ownership a privilege, not a right.

China overtakes UK as fifth-largest arms exporter

03/19/13:  The Washington Times reports China has grown its weapons sales by 162 percent over the last five years, allowing it to crack the top five list of arms exporters for the first time and fueling concerns of an arms race in Asia, a new report shows. There is also some evidence that Chinese industries are using arms sales “as a lever” to open new markets for more lucrative, non-military contracts, according to the report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. For huge state-owned industries like China's North Industries Corp., known as Norinco, “the arms trade represents only a fraction of their overall revenue,” said Paul Holtom, the report’s lead author. The report shows that the United States remains the top arms exporter, with 30 percent of the global market — followed by Russia, with 26 percent; Germany, 7 percent; France, 6 percent; and China, supplanting Britain, with 5 percent of the market. It’s the first time since the survey began in the 1950s that China entered the top-tier of exporters.

Kerry voices conditional US support for UN arms treaty

03/16/13:  Reuters reports Secretary of State John Kerry voiced support on Friday for an international treaty to regulate the $70 billion global arms trade, but restated Washington's "red line," affirming that it would not accept limits on U.S. domestic gun ownership. The UN General Assembly voted in December to hold a final round of negotiations from March 18 to 28 on what could become the first international treaty to regulate international weapons transfers after a drafting conference in July 2012 collapsed because the United States and others wanted more time. Arms control campaigners say one person every minute dies worldwide as a result of armed violence and that a convention is needed to prevent the unregulated and illicit flow of weapons into conflict zones fueling wars and atrocities. "The United States is steadfast in its commitment to achieve a strong and effective Arms Trade Treaty that helps address the adverse effects of the international arms trade on global peace and stability," Kerry said in a statement. "An effective treaty that recognizes that each nation must tailor and enforce its own national export and import control mechanisms can generate the participation of a broad majority of states, help stem the illicit flow of conventional arms across international borders and have important humanitarian benefits." But he repeated that the United States - the world's No. 1 arms manufacturer - would not accept any treaty that imposed new limits on U.S. citizens' right to bear arms, a sensitive political issue in the United States.

As North Korea blusters, South breaks taboo on nuclear talk

03/11/13: The New York Times reports a new sense of vulnerability created by recent aggressive talk from the North is causing some influential South Koreans to break a decades-old taboo by openly calling for Seoul to develop its own nuclear arsenal, a move that would raise the stakes in what is already one of the world’s most militarized regions.  While few in the South think this will happen anytime soon, two recent opinion polls show that two-thirds of South Koreans support the idea posed by a small but growing number of politicians and columnists.  In recent weeks, Pyongyang has approached a crucial threshold with its weapons programs, followed by a barrage of apocalyptic threats to rain “preemptive nuclear strikes” and “final destruction” on Seoul.

Mali conflict: French troops 'dismantle al-Qaeda base'

03/09/13:  The BBC reports a major al-Qaeda base has been dismantled by French forces in the remote mountains of northern Mali, France's defence minister has said. Jean-Yves Le Drian said a "very impressive" arsenal of weapons had been recovered from the site, called Ametetai, in the Ifoghas mountains. He also said a French national fighting with the militants had been captured. French President Francois Hollande said earlier this week French troops would begin withdrawing from Mali next month. He said the final phase of military intervention would continue throughout March and be scaled down in April.  "We're dealing with resolute and heavily-armed terrorists, who are engaging in significant fighting, and we have been able to inflict heavy damage on them." French troops found weapons "by the tonne," he said, including AK47s, grenade launchers and pick-ups hidden in natural caves. "I hadn't expected this to such an extent," he added.

Fake bomb detectors sold by businessman, court told

03/08/13:  The BBC reports a businessman sold fake bomb detectors to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Georgia and Niger, the Old Bailey has been told. James McCormick's Advanced Detection Equipment was based on a golf ball finder device and marketed to military, governments and police, the jury heard. Prosecutors said fake detectors sold for up to $40,000 (£27,000) had no grounding in science and made "fantastic" claims. Mr McCormick, 56, of Langport, Somerset, denies three counts of fraud. Richard Whittam QC, prosecuting, said brochures featuring men in military-type outfits promised detection of substances from planes, underwater, underground and through walls. However, he said, the three models - the ADE650, 651 and 101 - were shams and did not work. Mr Whittam said the forerunner of the 101, the 100, "was actually a golf ball finder" advertised as a "great novelty item" that could be purchased in the US for less than $20 (£13). New components were produced for the other models, including sensor cards that slotted into the machines, the court heard.

Taiwan’s massive, powerful radar system is finally operational

03/08/13:  Wired's Danger Room reports this weird, sloped 10-story green building gives the tiny island nation of Taiwan something that it’s wanted for 15 years: early warning of ballistic missiles and warplanes launched from over 3,000 miles away. For Taiwan, it’s a must-have. Neighboring China has over a thousand ballistic and cruise missiles pointed at it. Once launched, the missiles will slam onto the breakaway Chinese province within 10 minutes. Taiwan needs as much early warning as humanly possible if those missiles ever reach the air. This 105-foot system is about as advanced as early-warning radar arrays get. Known as PAVE PAWS, for Phased Array Warning System, the slopes of the building shown above are huge antennas built into the facade. Only a handful of countries — the U.S., Russia, maybe China itself — have this kind of early-warning system. Constructed on the top of a mountain in the country's north, the Raytheon-built system cost approximately $1.4 billion.  But with little international notice, Taiwan declared its PAVE PAWS operational last month.

UN Security Council loosens Somalian arms embargo

03/07/13:  The New York Times reports the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously on Wednesday to temporarily rescind part of a 21-year-old arms embargo on Somalia, the East African country once considered synonymous with warlordism, piracy and anarchy, portraying the easing as part of an effort to strengthen the fragile Somalian government’s authority by permitting it to purchase light weapons. A resolution adopted by the council also reauthorized, for one year, the African Union Mission to Somalia, a force of nearly 18,000 peacekeepers deployed in the country. Those troops are considered largely responsible for helping bring a measure of calm and stability to Somalia over the past 18 months by retaking territory formerly held by the Shabab, a fearsome Islamist militant group affiliated with Al Qaeda.

Report: MS-13 smuggles missile launchers, teams up with Zetas Cartel

03/07/13:  Wired's Danger Room reports MS-13 became El Salvador’s deadliest gang through force of numbers and the power of the handgun — while inking some pretty crazy tattoos. Now if they weren’t deadly enough, the gang is transitioning into adopting heavier weapons while teaming up with Mexico’s Zetas. It’s not easy tracking guns inside the gangster’s paradise of El Salvador, as the Maras are not prone to advertising their alliances and hardware. But according to a recent report from the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a hawkish national security think-tank, the gang is moving “away from a dependence on handguns via the acquisition of automatic rifles such as AK-47s, along with grenades, rocket propelled grenade launchers, and Light Anti-Tank Weapons,” or LAWs. The report’s conclusions also draw straight from the source: MS-13 gang members themselves. Worse, the authors write that the gang recently funneled multiple shoulder-fired SA-7 anti-aircraft missile launchers “to a clandestine arms market that operates in the Bajo Lempa region of El Salvador.” According to the authors’ sources, these SA-7s were first taken from stockpiles in Nicaragua left over from the country’s civil war, transferred to the arms market in Bajo Lempa, and “were eventually sold to the FARC for use in Colombia.”

IAEA head seeks access to Iranian military facility

03/04/13: The New York Times reports the head of the United Nations’ nuclear regulatory body urged Iran on Monday to permit access by international inspectors to a military site near Tehran to ascertain whether tests have been carried out there on nuclear bomb triggers.  International Atomic Energy Agency director Yukiya Amano spoke just weeks after IAEA inspectors returned from talks in Tehran that failed to obtain access to the Parchin site, twenty miles south of Tehran.  “I request Iran once again to provide access to the Parchin site without further delay,” Amano said.  The talks about Parchin are separate from the negotiations Tehran is conducting with six global powers on the broader question of its disputed nuclear program.  Western powers suspect that Iran is seeking the technology for nuclear weapons.

UN Security Council to vote on loosening Somalia arms embargo

03/03/13: Reuters reports the UN Security Council will vote Wednesday on a draft resolution lifting an arms embargo on Somalia’s government for one year so it can beef up its army to combat Islamist fighters.  Mogadishu has asked for the arms embargo to be lifted and the United States wants the Council to agree, but Britain and France have been wary of removing the ban in a country already awash with weapons.  The draft resolution, drawn up by the UK, appears to propose a compromise: lifting the arms embargo for one year but keeping restrictions in place on heavy weapons such as surface-to-air missiles, howitzers, and cannons.  Under the resolution, the embargo would not apply to other “weapons or military equipment or the provision of advice, assistance or training” to the Somali government.

Iran nuclear crisis: New talks open in Kazakhstan

02/26/13:  The BBC reports a new round of talks between world powers and Iran over its controversial nuclear programme has opened in the Kazakh city of Almaty. The discussions are the first since talks in July 2012 ended without a breakthrough. Negotiators from Iran are meeting counterparts from the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany - the P5+1. International powers suspect Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons - a charge Iran strongly denies. Iran insists its purposes are purely civilian, asserting it needs enriched uranium to make medical isotopes. Since 2010, Iran has been enriching uranium to a level of 20%, an important technological step towards being able to produce more highly enriched weapons-grade material. By curious practice, each new round of nuclear talks with Iran is held in a new place. So, the well-travelled collection of nuclear negotiators now finds itself amid the wide avenues and frozen pavements of Kazakhstan's largest city.

In shift, Saudis arm rebels in Syria

02/26/13: The New York Times reports Saudi Arabia has financed a large purchase of infantry weapons from Croatia and quietly funneled them to antigovernment fighters in Syria in a drive to break the bloody stalemate that has allowed President Bashar al-Assad to cling to power, according to American and Western officials familiar with the purchases. The weapons began reaching rebels in December via shipments shuttled through Jordan, officials said, and have been a factor in the rebels’ small tactical gains this winter against the army and militias loyal to Mr. Assad. The arms transfers appeared to signal a shift among several governments to a more activist approach to assisting Syria’s armed opposition, in part as an effort to counter shipments of weapons from Iran to Mr. Assad’s forces. The weapons’ distribution has been principally to armed groups viewed as nationalist and secular, and appears to have been intended to bypass the jihadist groups whose roles in the war have alarmed Western and regional powers.