Georgetown Security Law Brief

Russia building up missile systems while seeking to limit US defenses

05/16/13:  The Washington Times reports Russia is engaged in a major buildup of both nuclear and conventional missile defense systems at the same time Moscow is seeking legal limits on US missile defenses, according to US officials. The Russian military is developing and deploying an array of new and modernized anti-missile interceptors that are part of a strategic doctrine that calls for defending against what Moscow believes to be an increasing threat posed by offensive ballistic missiles, said US officials with access to intelligence reports. New systems monitored by US intelligence agencies under development or in the deployment phase include an advanced S-500 missile defense system currently being built in addition to the already available, and very capable, S-400 and S-300 defenses. Additionally, the Russians are upgrading the SH-08 nuclear-tipped anti-missile interceptors that have been deployed around Moscow for more than two decades. US officials said the defenses are assessed as effective against cruise missiles, bombers, jet fighters, short- and intermediate-range ballistic missile, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Disclosure of the Russian missile defense buildup comes as the Obama administration is seeking to reach an agreement that critics say could result in legally binding restrictions on US defenses.

US imposes sanctions on those aiding Iran

05/10/13:  The New York Times reports the United States on Thursday expanded its roster of those violating Iran sanctions, blacklisting four Iranian companies and one individual suspected of helping the country enrich nuclear fuel. It also singled out two other companies, including a Venezuelan-Iranian bank, accused of helping Iran evade other Western-imposed prohibitions on oil sales and financial dealings.  The penalties announced by the Treasury and State Departments came a day after the Senate introduced legislation that could effectively deny the Iran government access to an estimated $100 billion worth of its own money parked in overseas banks, a step that proponents said could significantly damage Iran’s financial stability. That legislation, known as the Iran Sanctions Loophole Elimination Act, is expected to be integrated into a broader House measure introduced in February. The actions on Thursday appeared to signal an accelerated American effort to squeeze Iran economically over the lack of progress in negotiations on the disputed Iranian nuclear program, which Iran says is peaceful but the West has called a guise to achieve the ability to make atomic bombs. The latest round of negotiations last month ended inconclusively, and Western critics of Iran have accused it of stalling for time while it continues to enrich uranium.

Air Force sidelines 17 nuke officer

05/08/13: AP reports the Air Force stripped an unprecedented 17 officers of their authority to control - and, if necessary, launch - nuclear missiles after a string of unpublicized failings, including a remarkably dim review of their unit's launch skills. The group's deputy commander said it is suffering "rot" within its ranks. "We are, in fact, in a crisis right now," the commander, Lt. Col. Jay Folds, wrote in an internal email obtained by The Associated Press and confirmed by the Air Force. Asked about this at a Senate hearing Wednesday, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley, the service's top official, explained the problem by stressing that launch control officers are relatively junior in rank - lieutenants and captains - and need to be reminded continually of the importance of "this awesome responsibility" for which they have been trained. Donley said commanders must "ride herd" on the launch crews, and he said the Minot revelation shows that the Air Force has strengthened its inspection system. He said he is confident that the nuclear missile force is secure.

UN detects possible signs of past North Korean nuke test

04/23/13: The Miami Herald reports a UN agency tasked with looking for signs of nuclear explosions says its monitoring stations have detected radioactive gases that could be linked to North Korea's Feb. 12 test. CTBTO says stations in Japan and Russia have picked up ''significant" traces of noble gases that accompany a nuclear explosion and say they ''could be attributed" to the North's test. A statement from the Vienna-based CTBTO Tuesday said the Japanese station is located around 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) from the test site. It says lower levels were picked up by the Russian site at Ussuriysk, without giving its location in relation to the site. It says the two types of xenon radioactive isotopes detected ''provide reliable information on the nuclear nature of the source."

Report urges White House to rethink Iran penalties

04/18/13:  The New York Times reports a panel of former senior American officials and outside experts, including several who recently left the Obama administration, issued a suprisingly critical asssessment of American diplomacy toward Iran on Wednesday, urging President Obama to become far more engaged and to reconsider the likelihood that harsh sanctions will drive Tehran to concessions. In a report issued by the Iran Project, the former diplomats and experts suggested that the sanctions policy, rather than bolstering diplomacy, may be backfiring. As the pressure has increased, the group concluded, sanctions have “contributed to an increase in repression and corruption within Iran” and “may be sowing the seeds of long-term alienation between the Iranian people and the United States.” The critique comes as both Israel and Congress are urging the administration to go in the opposite direction, to put a sharp time limit on negotiations and, if necessary, to go beyond the financial and oil sanctions that have caused a tremendous drop in the value of the Iranian currency and sent inflation soaring.

Diplomats: Iran ups nuke technology

04/18/13:  The Washington Times reports technicians upgrading Iran's main uranium enrichment facility have tripled their installations of high-tech machines that could be used in a nuclear weapons program to more than 600 in the past three months, diplomats said Wednesday. They say the machines are not yet producing enriched uranium and some may be only partially installed. Still, the move is the latest sign that 10 years of diplomatic efforts have failed to persuade Tehran to curb its uranium enrichment. Instead, Iran continues to increase its capacities. The installations also suggest that Iran possesses both the technology to mass-produce centrifuges that can enrich much faster than its present machines and the ability to evade international sanctions meant to keep it from getting materials it needs to do so. Iran insists it has no interest in nuclear weapons and says it’s enriching uranium only for nuclear power and other nonmilitary applications. Iran also asserts it has a right to do so under international law.

North Korea sets conditions for return to talks

04/18/13:  The New York Times reports North Korea on Thursday demanded the lifting of United Nations sanctions and an end to joint American-South Korean military exercises as preconditions for starting dialogue to defuse tension on the Korean Peninsula. By making demands that both Washington and Seoul had no intention of accepting, North Korea signaled that it would not stand down anytime soon from a weeks-long military standoff. But the fact that North Korea has recently begun responding to U.S. and South Korean offers for dialogue, even though they came with steep preconditions, has raised cautious hopes among South Korean analysts that the North might be ready to wind down weeks of hostile rhetoric that at times appeared to bring the peninsula close to a point of conflict. The statement demanded that Washington withdraw “all nuclear war means” from South Korea. It also said South Korea must stop making negative assertions about North Korea, such as its accusation blaming North Korea for a cyberattack that paralyzed the computer networks of South Korean broadcasters and banks last month. It also taunted President Park Geun-hye of South Korea, saying that she should consider the North’s nuclear weapons “a property common to the nation.” Ms. Park has repeatedly said that nuclear weapons would only bring North Korea “self-destruction.”

Kerry says US prepared to reach out to North Korea

04/15/13: The blog Space War reports Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday he would be prepared to reach out to North Korea urging it back to negotiations, but he vowed the US would protect Japan from Pyongyang’s threats.  Following talks with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo, where Patriot missiles have been deployed in anticipation of a missile launch by the North, Kerry pledged the US would backstop its ally.  “The United States is fully committed to the defense of Japan,” Kerry said at a joint press conference with Kishida.  “We’re prepared to reach out [to North Korea], but we need the appropriate moment, appropriate circumstances,” Kerry said later.  “There are standards clearly that we want to achieve to enter into negotiations, but there are certain channels that we can reach out to.”

China and US make North Korea nuclear pledge

04/13/13:  The BBC reports China and the US have vowed to work together to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programme and to settle tensions through dialogue. A Chinese statement issued during a visit by US Secretary of State John Kerry said the nuclear issue was the "shared responsibility of all parties". Mr Kerry said the two sides must decide "very quickly" how to proceed. North Korea has recently threatened nuclear attacks, and is feared to be preparing a missile launch. A flurry of warlike statements from Pyongyang has prompted speculation that a launch could happen on 15 April, when the country marks the 101st birthday of the nation's founder and former leader, Kim Il-sung.

Former nuclear negotiator joins Iran's presidential race

04/11/13:  Reuters reports a former Iranian nuclear negotiator announced on Thursday he would run for president, the most moderate contender so far to bid to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a June election dominated by conservatives. Hassan Rowhani, 64, was head of the powerful Supreme National Security Council under presidents Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, considered a master of realpolitik rather than an ideologue, and Mohammad Khatami, who pushed for wide-ranging social and political reforms. Rowhani, a Muslim cleric, presided over talks with Britain, France and Germany that saw Iran agree to suspend uranium enrichment-related activities between 2003 and 2005. He resigned after Ahmadinejad took office in August that year. The nuclear work was resumed and Rowhani was derided for being too accommodating in negotiations. During Ahmadinejad's two terms in office, tensions with the West over Iran's nuclear program have worsened, with the United States and Europe imposing sanctions on its oil and a banks over suspicions Tehran is seeking atomic arms, which it denies. "We need a new management for the country but not based on quarrelling, inconsistency and eroding domestic capacity, but through unity, consensus and attracting honest and efficient people," Rowhani told a gathering of supporters on Thursday, Iran's Mehr news agency reported. The June election is Iran's first presidential poll since 2009 when mass street protests erupted against Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election.

Defiant Iran goes forth with 2 nuclear projects

04/09/13:  The Washington Times reports Iran put the finishing touch on its latest round of nuclear talks with world powers with a symbolic face-slap and on Tuesday jumpstarted two key nuclear-related projects. Iran-run media reported that the nation has started operations at Saghand and at Ardakan. The Associated Press said the sites represent two of Iran’s biggest uranium operations: Saghand is a uranium mine, and Ardakan is an ore concentrate production plant. As AP reported, Iran already has mines and processing facilities in operation. But those other facilities are much smaller than the ones at Saghand and Ardakan. And the West fears starting operations at these two central Iran sites gives the country greater ability to make the materials needed to enrich nuclear fuel - to ultimately, warhead grade levels. Iran is perceived by the United States and U.S. allies as bypassing U.N. sanctions against its purchase of nuclear materials by developing its own nuclear enrichment program to a level that allows it to construct its own — a charge that Iranian officials deny. Iran maintains its nuclear enrichment is for peaceable, energy-related purposes only.

Talks on Iran’s nuclear program ‘remain far apart’

04/06/13:  The New York Times reports negotiations over Iran’s disputed nuclear program broke off on Saturday without signs of even incremental progress, much less an agreement on tighter controls and tougher international oversight demanded by six world powers in exchange for some easing of sanctions that now have a stranglehold on the Iranian economy. The failure to reach any accord was a serious setback for the talks, which have become complicated by the Iranian presidential election now just 10 weeks away. After the conclusion of two days of tense bargaining, Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said that after “long and intense discussions” it was clear that the sides “remain far apart on the substance." No future negotiations were announced and Ms. Ashton said that she would be "in touch very soon" with the top Iranian negotiator, Saeed Jalili, "in order to see how to go forward.” Russia’s lead negotiator at the talks, Sergei Ryabkov, also sounded a dark note but said there was still hope for future discussions.

Iran says it offers new plan for nuclear program

04/05/13:  The New York Times reports as negotiations resumed here on Friday between Iran and the six world powers demanding that it curb its nuclear program, Iran said it had put forward a new “comprehensive proposal” that it hoped would “establish a new bedrock for cooperation.” In a sign that the talks could be headed toward a quick dead-end, the Iranian statement was depicted as a bewildering surprise to the other negotiators, who said they had not received any concrete new proposal. A Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Iranian remarks essentially echoed a position articulated at talks in Moscow last June. "We are somewhat puzzled by the Iranians’ characterization of what they presented at this morning’s plenary,” the official said. “There were some interesting but not fully explained general comments on our ideas.” Talks continued in the afternoon.

Isotope seized in Georgia too small for dirty bomb

04/05/13:  The Miami Herald reports three men are under arrest in Georgia on charges of illegally possessing a radioactive isotope that can be used in a dirty bomb, but authorities say they didn't have enough to make one of the devices. Police say the three Georgians were holding Americium-241. That is one of the substances widely seen as a possible component in explosive devices aimed at spreading radioactive particles that would kill or sicken people. Grigol Basilia, the energy ministry's top official for security issues, on Thursday declined to say how much of the isotope was seized, but said it was "not enough to build a so-called dirty bomb."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/04/3322801/isotope-seized-in-georgia-too.html#storylink=cpy

North Korea moves missile to coast, but limited threat seen

04/04/13:  The New York Times reports South Korea’s defense chief said on Thursday that North Korea has moved to its east coast a missile with a “considerable” range, but that it was not capable of reaching the United States. The disclosure came as the Communist North’s military warned that it was ready to strike US military forces with “cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means.” North Korea has been issuing a blistering series of similar threats in recent weeks, citing as targets the US military installations in the Pacific islands of Hawaii and Guam, as well as the United States mainland. In its latest threat on Thursday, it did not name targets but said it was authorized to “take powerful practical military counteractions” against the threats from B-2 bombers from the United States, B-52 bombers from Guam and F-22 Stealth jet fighters from Japan that have recently run missions over the Korean Peninsula during joint military exercises with South Korea.

North Korea can likely revive reactor in six months, needs years for more bombs

04/04/13:  Reuters reports North Korea can probably restart a mothballed plutonium-producing reactor in six months if it is determined to do so and the site has suffered no major structural damage, but it may take years to produce significant new atom bomb material. Pyongyang announced on Tuesday that it would revive the aged Yongbyon five-megawatt research reactor that yields bomb-grade plutonium, but stressed it was seeking a deterrent capacity. Several nuclear experts familiar with North Korea's program said it would probably take the North Koreans about half a year to get the Yongbyon research reactor up and running, provided it has not suffered significant damage from neglect. The decision to restart the reactor was the latest chapter in an escalating crisis that erupted after Pyongyang was hit with U.N. sanctions for conducting a third nuclear test in February, and the United States and South Korea staged military drills that North Korea viewed as "hostile."

Double-digit inflation worsens in Iran

04/02/13:  The New York Times reports Iran’s double-digit inflation rate worsened for the sixth consecutive month in March, the government said on Monday, in what appeared to be an implicit acknowledgment that international sanctions linked to the disputed Iranian nuclear program are causing some economic harm. The government’s statistics office said the rate increased in March to an annualized 31.5 percent, compared with 30.2 percent in February and 26.4 percent a year earlier, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Mehr report did not offer an explanation for the increase except to specify that much of it was in the categories of food, beverages and tobacco. Many economists say the real rate could be at least double the official rate, partly because it does not fully take into account the prices of many imported goods, which have become prohibitively expensive. The main reason is the severe depreciation of the rial, Iran’s national currency, as the sanctions that have limited Central Bank activities and oil exports have taken hold. Some experts believe the Iranian inflation calculation deliberately understates the actual rate in order to present a public face of resistance to the coercive pressures inflicted by the sanctions, which have been imposed largely by the United States and European Union.

UPDATED: Voice in Kim Jong-un's head tells him to stop what he's doing

04/01/13: The Onion reports that while performing his duties as Supreme Leader of North Korea Monday, Kim Jong-un reportedly heard a small voice in the back of his mind telling him that his actions over the last six months have been very strange and wrong.  Sources confirmed that the tiny voice, which spoke to Kim at various points throughout the day, quietly suggested that the four-star military general and Worker Party’s secretary is a weird person with out-of-whack priorities who acts in a way that makes little sense to anyone.  “You are a very odd man who does things that are bizarre and indicative of a mentally ill person,” the little voice reportedly said following a speech in which Kim issued apocalyptic threats to enemies in the West and predicted the destruction of America.  “The things you say on a daily basis are not only extremely creepy and off-putting, but they are also very wrong. You should probably not be the leader of a country.”

UPDATE: April Fool.

North Korea vows to keep nuclear arms and fix economy

04/01/13: The New York Times reports North Korea’s leader on Sunday announced a “new strategic line” that defied warnings from Washington, saying that his country was determined to rebuild its economy in the face of international sanctions while simultaneously expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal, which the ruling party called “the nation’s life.”  North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un presided over a Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party, the first such meeting since 1993.  The party meeting took place against the backdrop of joint military exercises in South Korea involving American and South Korean forces.  On Sunday, American F-22 stealth fighter jets were flown from a base in Japan to South Korea to join the exercises.  In past weeks, B-52 and B-2 bombers offered a demonstration of American air power as part of the exercises.

White House says North Korea "state of war" threat taken seriously

03/31/13: The Hill reports the White House said Saturday it was taking threats of war from North Korea “seriously,” while acknowledging that Pyongyang has a history of bellicose rhetoric.  “We take these threats seriously and remain in close contact with our South Korean Allies,” said Caitlin Hayden, a spokeswoman for the National Security Council.  “But, we would also note that North Korea has a long history of bellicose rhetoric and threats and today’s announcement follows that familiar pattern.”  North Korea Saturday declared that a “state of war” existed with the South and threatened to “dissolve” the United States in an “all-out war and nuclear war.”  Pyongyang has cut the military hotline with Seoul and earlier this week said the armistice ending the Korean War in 1953 was void.

North Korea enters 'state of war' with South

03/30/13:  The BBC reports North Korea has said it is entering a "state of war" with South Korea in the latest escalation of rhetoric against its neighbour and the US. A statement promised "stern physical actions" against "any provocative act". North Korea has threatened attacks almost daily since it was sanctioned for a third nuclear test in February. However, few think the North would risk full-blown conflict. It has technically been at war with the South since 1953 as no peace treaty has been signed. An armistice at the end of the Korean War was never turned into a full treaty.

NATO manual: Stuxnet attack on Iran nuclear facilities was act of force

03/25/13: The Washington Times reports a new manual commissioned by NATO’s cyberwarfare center says the cyberattack by the US and Israel that crippled Iran’s nuclear program by sabotaging industrial equipment constituted “an act of force” and was possibly illegal under international law.  The Tallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Warfare says, “Acts that kill or injure persons or destroy or damage objects are unambiguously uses of force.”  The international group of researchers who wrote the manual were unanimous that Stuxnet — the self-replicating cyberweapon that destroyed Iranian centrifuges that were enriching uranium — was an act of force, but were divided on whether its effects were severe enough to constitute an “armed attack,” which would trigger hostilities under the UN Charter and allow Iran to retaliate in self-defense.  Neither Israel nor the United States has publicly acknowledged being behind Stuxnet, but they are widely believed to have been responsible.

South Korea and US sign new security pact

03/25/13: Al Jazeera reports South Korea and the United States have signed a new military plan that lays out how the allies will communicate with each other and react to any future North Korean aggression.  The signing on Monday comes amid North Korean threats to attack the allies over their joint military drills and recent punishing UN sanctions aimed at Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test.  Seoul’s joint chiefs of staff said the plan is designed to counter a future limited attack by North Korea, but details weren’t released.  Work on the plan began after a North Korean artillery attack on a South Korean island in 2010 killed four people.  The allies also have a separate plan in the case of a full-blown war on the Korean peninsula.  There are 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea.

US, Netherlands in nuclear security pact

03/24/13: The blog Space War reports the United States and the Netherlands say they’ve expanded their cooperation to reduce global nuclear and radiological threats.  Under an agreement signed with the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s Office of Global Threat Reduction, (GTRI) the Netherlands will contribute $650,000 to GTRI’s efforts to secure and remove vulnerable radiological material.  This is Amsterdam’s second major cooperative activity with GTRI, and the third time it has partnered with NNSA’s nuclear nonproliferation programs.  Under the new agreement, the Netherlands financial contribution will support GTRI’s current work in Kazakhstan on projects related to the search, removal, and physical protection of radiological material.  The NNSA is a semiautonomous agency within the US Department of Energy responsible for enhancing national security through the application of nuclear science.

Nuclear states divided on India joining export control group

03/21/13:  Reuters reports the United States and three other big powers this week argued for allowing nuclear-armed India into an atomic export control group, but China and several European states appeared doubtful about the move, diplomats said on Wednesday. They said the divisions were in evidence during closed-door talks of the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group on the sensitive issue of whether India could join and become the NSG's only member that is outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, France, Britain and Russia were among those which backed membership for India - Asia's third-largest economy - while smaller European states such as Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland had reservations, the envoys said. China stressed the need for equal treatment in South Asia, an apparent reference to its ally Pakistan which is also outside the NPT and has also tested atomic bombs, they said. One diplomat said Japan also appeared lukewarm on the idea. The tone of Monday's informal debate in Vienna suggested that the controversial issue will not be ready for a decision at the NSG's next annual plenary session, to be held in the Czech capital of Prague in June. NSG decisions are made by consensus.

China: US missile defense plan risks antagonizing North Korea

03/18/13: CNN reports China warned Monday that the United States’ plans to beef up its missile defenses against North Korea are likely to inflame tensions already running high over Pyongyang’s nuclear program.  “Bolstering missile defenses will only intensify antagonism, and it doesn’t help to solve the issue,” Hong Lei, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a news briefing in Beijing.  Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced Friday that the United States will deploy additional ground-based missile interceptors on the West Coast as part of efforts to enhance the nation’s ability to defend itself from attack by North Korea.  The announcement came after North Korea recently threatened a preemptive nuclear attack on South Korea and the United States in response to stepped-up UN sanctions over its latest nuclear test last month.

Iran indicts 18 over killing of nuclear scientists

03/18/13: The Miami Herald reports Iran’s judiciary has indicted eighteen suspects on charges of involvement in the killing of nuclear scientists.  Since 2010, at least five Iranian nuclear scientists, including a manager at the Natanz enrichment facility, have been killed.  Tehran has accused Israel’s Mossad, the CIA, and Britain’s MI6 of being behind the assassinations; Washington and London have denied the allegations, while Tel Aviv has not commented.  Iranian state media said Sunday that authorities have issued indictments against the eighteen suspects, who will be tried in the coming months.  In 2012, Iran hanged a man for the 2010 killing of a nuclear physicist.

North Korea says it won't trade nuclear arms for economic aid

03/17/13: The New York Times reports North Korea said Saturday that its nuclear weapons were not a bargaining chip to trade for economic concessions, warning that it would never negotiate with the United States as long as Washington maintained its hostile policy toward Pyongyang.  The statement was the latest in a series in which North Korea has appeared to harden its position on its nuclear weapons program.  Since the United Nations Security Council imposed more sanctions to punish North Korea for its launching of a long-range rocket in December and its third nuclear test last month, the country has said it will no longer attend talks on dismantling its nuclear program.  North Korea previously quit multinational nuclear talks, but until recently had often said ridding the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons was its ultimate goal.

US scraps final phase of European missile shield

03/16/13:  The BBC reports US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has scrapped the final phase of its European missile defence shield, citing development problems and funding cuts. Upgraded interceptors were to have been deployed in Poland to counter medium- and intermediate-range missiles, and potential threats from the Middle East. Mr Hagel said the threat had "matured" and that the US commitment to Nato missile defence remained "ironclad". The interceptors had been strongly opposed by the Russian government. It complained that they would be able to stop Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and undermine its nuclear deterrent. The US has always insisted that the missile shield was intended to protect against attacks by Iran and North Korea. Analysts said Friday's announcement could open the door to another round of talks between the US and Russia on nuclear arms reductions.

US 'to boost missile defences', to counter North Korea

03/15/13:  The BBC reports the Pentagon is expected to announce plans to boost missile defences on the US West Coast to counter the threat from North Korea. The US plans to add 14 interceptors, which can shoot down missiles in flight, to 30 already in place in California and Alaska, officials say. US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel is set to outline the decision at 15:00 (19:00 GMT) on Friday. Tensions have escalated after North Korea's third nuclear test last month. Only last week, the Pyongyang regime, which is known for its fiery rhetoric, threatened the US with a pre-emptive nuclear strike. However, analysts say that North Korea's missiles do not have the capability to reach the continental United States. In a speech on Tuesday, James Miller, defence undersecretary for policy, noted that the Pentagon had the ability to deploy the additional missile interceptors "if needed". He did not say in that speech that a decision had been reached to do so.

Iran nuclear weapon to take year or more, Obama says

03/15/13:  The New York Times reports President Obama told an Israeli television station on Thursday that his administration believed it would take Iran “over a year or so” to develop a nuclear weapon, and he vowed that the United States would do whatever was necessary to prevent that from happening. Less than a week before his first visit as president to Israel, Mr. Obama pledged to continue diplomatic efforts, but he promised that the United States would keep all options on the table to ensure that Iran did not become a nuclear threat to its neighbors. Mr. Obama’s estimated timeline contrasts with Mr. Netanyahu’s stated belief that Israel and its Western allies are likely to have to intervene by the spring or summer, when, he says, Iran’s scientists will have enriched enough uranium to become a nuclear threat. Iran denies that its nuclear program has any military aim. Mr. Obama has rarely been so specific about how long American intelligence agencies estimate it will take Iran to build a bomb. In defining the problem as he did — when Iran could get a weapon, rather than when it could have the capability to build one — he subtly indicated that he and Mr. Netanyahu still saw the problem in very different terms.

 

North Korea nullifies armistice as South Korea, US proceed with joint military exercise

03/11/13: The Washington Times reports North Korea has canceled its 60-year-old armistice with South Korea as war games with South Korea and the US began on Monday.  An estimated 10,000 South Korean soldiers and 3,000 American troops kicked off a joint 11-day drill.  Troops from the South are on high alert as Pyongyang responded to the joint exercise with fresh vows to launch a nuclear attack against the United States.  Twice on Monday, the North ignored calls from the South to its hotline.  This is the highest tensions have hit between the two nations since the North fired artillery shells at a South Korean island nearly three years ago.  The North has purported to nullify the armistice before, however.

As North Korea blusters, South breaks taboo on nuclear talk

03/11/13: The New York Times reports a new sense of vulnerability created by recent aggressive talk from the North is causing some influential South Koreans to break a decades-old taboo by openly calling for Seoul to develop its own nuclear arsenal, a move that would raise the stakes in what is already one of the world’s most militarized regions.  While few in the South think this will happen anytime soon, two recent opinion polls show that two-thirds of South Koreans support the idea posed by a small but growing number of politicians and columnists.  In recent weeks, Pyongyang has approached a crucial threshold with its weapons programs, followed by a barrage of apocalyptic threats to rain “preemptive nuclear strikes” and “final destruction” on Seoul.

France, Israel express support for stronger Iran sanctions

03/10/13: The Space War blog reports French President Francois Hollande and his Israeli counterpart Shimon Peres said on Friday sanctions on Iran over its contested nuclear program are biting but need to be strengthened further.  “I have said how much we want the sanctions to be beefed up, which are already efficient,” Hollande said after meeting Peres.  Iran last month held talks with the five UN Security Council permanent members, plus Germany, in Kazakhstan.  “I was very glad to hear from [President Hollande] that he plans to take more measures because if we can end this danger without military use, it will be better,” Peres said.  Although Hollande and Peres both hold the title “President,” the latter is a figurehead; the real power in Israel lies with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Peres’ former political rival.

China warns against Korea escalation

03/08/13:  The BBC reports China has appealed for calm on the Korean peninsula, hours after North Korea said it had scrapped all peace pacts with the South and threatened pre-emptive nuclear strikes. China, the North's only major ally, said all sides should continue to talk and avoid "further escalation". Pyongyang has reacted angrily to another round of sanctions imposed by the UN over its recent nuclear test. The sanctions restrict luxury goods imports and banking activities. Beijing provides fuel, food and diplomatic cover to Pyongyang. It has repeatedly voted in favour of UN sanctions imposed over the nuclear programme, but enforcement of the measures in China is patchy. Hua Chunying of China's foreign ministry told a news conference on Friday: "China and North Korea have normal country relations. At the same time, we also oppose North Korea's conducting of nuclear tests.

UN Security Council to hold closed-door talks on North Korea

03/05/13:  The BBC reports the UN Security Council is to hold closed-door talks on North Korea after reports of a US-Chinese deal on new sanctions over its nuclear test. Unnamed diplomats were quoted as saying the US is expected to circulate a draft resolution to the 15-nation council at its 11:00 (16:00 GMT) meeting. North Korea carried out its third and most powerful nuclear test in February, sparking worldwide condemnation. Earlier on Tuesday, Pyongyang warned it may scrap a 60-year Korean ceasefire. North Korea's military said it would end the truce with South Korea if Seoul continued annual military exercises with the US, which began on Friday. The Korean War ended with an armistice in 1953 - not a peace treaty - meaning the peninsula is still technically at war. Similar threats have been made before by the North, which sees the military exercises and pressure over its nuclear programme as acts of aggression.

IAEA head seeks access to Iranian military facility

03/04/13: The New York Times reports the head of the United Nations’ nuclear regulatory body urged Iran on Monday to permit access by international inspectors to a military site near Tehran to ascertain whether tests have been carried out there on nuclear bomb triggers.  International Atomic Energy Agency director Yukiya Amano spoke just weeks after IAEA inspectors returned from talks in Tehran that failed to obtain access to the Parchin site, twenty miles south of Tehran.  “I request Iran once again to provide access to the Parchin site without further delay,” Amano said.  The talks about Parchin are separate from the negotiations Tehran is conducting with six global powers on the broader question of its disputed nuclear program.  Western powers suspect that Iran is seeking the technology for nuclear weapons.

Iran says it has 3,000 advanced centrifuges

03/03/13: The Miami Herald reports Iran’s nuclear chief says his country has produced more than 3,000 advanced centrifuges which are used to enrich uranium.   Fereidoun Abbasi said Sunday that the old generation of IR-1 centrifuges will be phased out soon.  Iran has more than 12,000 IR-1 centrifuges enriching uranium at its main Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran.  Abbasi said last month that Iran has begun installing the newer IR-2 centrifuges, which can produce more enriched uranium in a shorter period of time.  He said the production line of the new, advanced centrifuges has been completed but did not elaborate.  The US and its allies fear that Iran may eventually be able to develop a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran denies.  Iran has repeatedly been hit with sanctions over the program.

Iran nuclear crisis: New talks open in Kazakhstan

02/26/13:  The BBC reports a new round of talks between world powers and Iran over its controversial nuclear programme has opened in the Kazakh city of Almaty. The discussions are the first since talks in July 2012 ended without a breakthrough. Negotiators from Iran are meeting counterparts from the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany - the P5+1. International powers suspect Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons - a charge Iran strongly denies. Iran insists its purposes are purely civilian, asserting it needs enriched uranium to make medical isotopes. Since 2010, Iran has been enriching uranium to a level of 20%, an important technological step towards being able to produce more highly enriched weapons-grade material. By curious practice, each new round of nuclear talks with Iran is held in a new place. So, the well-travelled collection of nuclear negotiators now finds itself amid the wide avenues and frozen pavements of Kazakhstan's largest city.

Syrian opposition claims capture of former suspected nuclear site

02/25/13: Reuters reports the Syrian opposition claimed Sunday that it captured the site of a suspected nuclear reactor near the Euphrates river which Israeli warplanes destroyed six years ago.  The al-Kubar site became a focus of international attention when Israel raided it in 2007.  The United States said the complex was a North Korean-designed nuclear reactor geared to making weapons-grade plutonium.  A spokesman for the Eastern Joint Command of the Free Syrian Army said the only building rebels found at the site was a hangar containing at least one Scud missile.  “It appears that the site was turned into a Scud launch base.  Whatever structures it had have been buried,” he said.

Iran to be offered sanctions relief in exchange for shutting down nuclear plant

02/25/13: Reuters reports major powers will offer Iran some relief from crippling sanctions during talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, this week if Tehran agrees to curb its nuclear program.  However, a US official said the Islamic Republic could face more economic pain if the standoff remains unresolved.  Reports indicate the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany, and France will offer to ease sanctions on trade in gold and precious metals if Iran closes its Fordow underground uranium enrichment plant.  Iranian officials have indicated, however, that this will not be enough.  The US hopes the Almaty meeting February 26-27 will lead to follow-up talks, and the United States may also be prepared to hold bilateral talks with Tehran if it was serious about it.

Iran selects 16 sites for new nuclear power plants

02/24/13: The Washington Times reports Iran has selected sixteen locations as suitable for new nuclear power plants it intends to build to boost its energy production over the next fifteen years.  Tehran says it needs twenty large-scale plants to meet its growing electricity needs.  It currently operates a 1,000-megawat nuclear power plant at Bushehr, a coastal town on the Persian Gulf, and is planning to build a 360-megawatt nuclear power plant in the southwestern town of Darkhovin.  A statement released by his organization said the sites were chosen in part for their resistance to earthquakes and military air strikes.  The US and some of its allies fear that Iran could ultimately be able to develop a nuclear weapon.  Iran says its nuclear program is geared toward peaceful purposes such as generating electricity nuclear medicine.

Iran announces uranium finds days before nuclear talks

02/23/13:  Reuters reports days before resuming talks over its disputed atomic program, Iran said on Saturday it had found significant new deposits of raw uranium and identified sites for 16 more nuclear power stations. State news agency IRNA quoted a report by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) which said the reserves were discovered in northern and southern coastal areas and had trebled the amount outlined in previous estimates. There was no independent confirmation. With few uranium mines of its own, Western experts had previously thought that Iran might be close to exhausting its supply of raw uranium.

Iran appears to advance in construction of Arak nuclear plant

02/22/13: Reuters reports Iran appears to be advancing in its construction of a research reactor Western experts say could offer the Islamic state a second way of producing material for a nuclear bomb, if it decided to embark on such a course, a U.N. report showed. Iran has almost completed installation of cooling and moderator circuit piping in the heavy water plant near the town of Arak, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a confidential report issued to member states late on Thursday.  Nuclear analysts say this type of reactor could yield plutonium for nuclear arms if the spent fuel is reprocessed, something Iran has said it has no intention of doing. Iran has said it "does not have reprocessing activities", the IAEA said. In its previous report on Iran, in November, the Vienna-based U.N. agency said installation work at Arak was continuing, without giving any indication of how far advanced it was.

Iran installing new uranium centrifuges, says IAEA

02/21/13:  The BBC reports Iran has begun installing advanced centrifuge machines for enriching uranium at its nuclear plant at Natanz, says the UN's nuclear watchdog. The IAEA said it suspected Iran may have also held explosives tests relevant to nuclear weapons. The step will concern world powers ahead of a resumption of talks with Tehran next week, analysts say. Tehran has denied the accusation, and says it is refining uranium only for peaceful energy purposes.

Commentary: Iran is just too dysfunctional to cut a nuclear deal

02/21/13:  Foreign Policy published an article by Patrick Clawson arguing the slow pace of nuclear negotiations with Iran are only the beginning of the reasons to be discouraged about resolution of the standoff. More worrying is that political infighting in Tehran is so bad that Iran might not be able to bring itself to accept unilateral U.S. unconditional surrender were it to be offered. By their actions, Iranian leaders are giving the strong impression that they are so preoccupied by their internal differences that they cannot agree on, well, a damn thing. Disunity helps the enemy, Khamenei frequently says. But the world powers negotiating with Iran would be glad to see more unity in Tehran, because a more unified Iranian government would be better able to reach a deal and then implement it. That seems less and less likely. The time is rapidly approaching when the big powers, or at least the United States, need to set out a stark choice for Iran's leaders: Either accept a generous offer to resolve the nuclear impasse or be prepared for the consequences.

Report: North Korea tells China it plans 1-2 more nuclear tests this year

02/16/13:  The Washington Times reports North Korea has told China, its major ally, that it will conduct one or two more nuclear tests before the end of this year, according to a source who claimed direct knowledge of the message.  “It’s all ready. A fourth and fifth nuclear test and a rocket launch could be conducted soon, possibly this year,” the unnamed source said, in a Reuters report. The source also reportedly claimed the next test would be much bigger than the one conducted Feb. 12. That one yielded an estimated six-to-seven kilotons of TNT; the next will surpass 10 kilotons, according to source statements in the Reuters report.  The source was described as high-level, with direct access to top government officials in both Beijing and Pyongyang, Reuters reported.

Iranian scientists believed to have attended North Korean nuclear test, report says

02/15/13:  The Washington Times reports Iranian scientists may have been on hand to witness North Korea’s underground nuclear test, according to one Western diplomat.  The source, unnamed but described as having knowledge of inside Iran-North Korea talks and ties, according to United Press International, said an Iranian presence would mean the international community is likely right — that Iran is actively and aggressively pursuing development of nuclear weapons.  According to UPI, the source said that Iran may have paid Pyongyang tens of millions of dollars — in Chinese currency — to obtain access to the test.

Nuclear watchdog says no deal reached with Iran

02/14/13:  The New York Times reports a senior official of the United Nations nuclear supervisory body said on Thursday that talks a day earlier in Iran had ended inconclusively and international inspectors had not been given access to a site that they suspect may have been used for testing bomb triggers.  The Tehran talks coincided with conflicting signals suggesting that Iran is pressing ahead with the modernization of part of its program to enrich uranium to less than 5 percent purity while potentially slowing the expansion of a stockpile of more highly enriched uranium.

North Korea nuclear test: No radiation detected

02/14/13:  The BBC reports South Korean experts say they have not detected any radioactive isotopes from North Korea's nuclear test, hampering efforts to assess the device.  Eight samples had been analysed but nothing found, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission said.  Finding certain isotopes - xenon gases in particular - would help experts determine whether a plutonium or uranium-based device was used.  But a well-contained test could yield no radioactive isotopes, experts say.  South Korean planes and ships were sent out immediately after the test to collect samples, as was a Japanese plane.  No changes had been recorded at 122 unmanned radiation monitoring systems across the country, it added.  North Korea said on Tuesday that it had carried out an underground nuclear test, which it claimed involved a miniaturised but more powerful device.