Georgetown Security Law Brief

Syria crisis: Government 'to attend Geneva conference'

05/24/13: The BBC reports Russia says Damascus has agreed "in principle" to attend an international conference on the Syria crisis set to be held in Geneva in June. Its foreign ministry said the Syrian government would participate "in order for Syrians themselves to find a political path to a solution". It follows efforts to get all the sides involved in the peace talks. Syria's main opposition group entered a second day of talks Friday aimed at finding an approach to the conference. The international conference, backed by Russia and the US, aims to find a political solution to the conflict in Syria, based on the final communique of the UN-backed Action Group for Syria meeting in the Swiss city in June 2012. The communique called for an immediate end to violence and the establishment of a transitional government that could include officials serving under President Bashar al-Assad and members of the opposition. US Secretary of State John Kerry warned the Syrian president on Wednesday that if he was not prepared to make "a commitment to find peace in his country", the US and others would consider increasing backing for his opponents.

Iran and Hezbollah support for Syria complicates peace-talk strategy

05/22/13:  The New York Times reports as evidence grows of increased Iranian support for the Syrian government, the Obama administration’s strategy to bring the bitter fighting there to a close faces more challenges than ever.  With White House support, Secretary of State John Kerry has pushed for an international conference in Geneva in June that would bring representatives of the Syria government together with the opposition. The aim would be to negotiate a transitional government that would take over if President Bashar al-Assad vacates his post and to put an end to the civil war that has killed more than 80,000. But the stepped-up support Mr. Assad has received from Iran and Hezbollah in recent months appears to have fortified his belief that he can hang on to power and prevail militarily — or at least control a strategically significant swath of the country. The limited assistance the United States and its partners have so far been willing to provide the rebels seems unlikely to prompt Mr. Assad to look for a political way out, critics maintain. And persistent divisions within the ranks of the Syrian opposition, which is again seeking to select a new political leadership, can only be a source of comfort to the Syrian president.

Syria and Israel in exchange of fire

05/21/13:  The BBC reports Israeli and Syrian forces have exchanged fire across the ceasefire line in the occupied Golan Heights. Israel returned fire after one of its military vehicles was hit by shots from Syria, Israel's defence forces say. Media reports say no-one was hurt. Syria says it destroyed an Israeli vehicle which it says crossed the ceasefire line into territory its forces control. Syria and Israel have traded fire a number of times in recent weeks. The Israeli military said its troops "returned precise fire" after the vehicle was hit. A statement from the Syrian army said it had "destroyed an Israeli vehicle with everything that it had in it". The statement said the vehicle was shot after it crossed the ceasefire line and headed towards the rebel-held village of Bir Ajam. It warned that any attempts to violate its sovereignty would be "met with immediate and firm retaliation". Syrian gunfire has hit the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in two previous incidents this week, without causing injury. There have been sporadic exchanges of fire between the two sides in recent months.

Hezbollah suffers losses in fierce battle for Syrian city

05/20/13:  The New York Times reports fighting raged on Monday in the strategic Syrian city of Qusayr, as the government unleashed new airstrikes and rebels resisted fiercely in parts of the city even as their makeshift hospitals overflowed with the wounded, Syrian opposition activists said. The toll of dead and wounded also continued to rise for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is fighting its biggest battle yet on the side of President Bashar al-Assad. Both sides have depicted the fighting in Qusayr as a turning point in the war that is raising regional tensions as Hezbollah plunges more deeply into the conflict. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition watchdog group, reported that at least 23 Hezbollah guerrillas had died in the fighting. If confirmed, that would be by far the largest toll for Hezbollah in a single Syrian battle. Rebels said they destroyed seven armored vehicles and killed dozens more government and Hezbollah fighters, according to an activist in Qusayr.

Syrian troops said to strike town near Lebanon

05/19/13:  The New York Times reports Syrian troops backed by tanks and warplanes launched an assault Sunday on a strategic rebel-held town near the Lebanese border, pounding the area with airstrikes and artillery salvos that killed at least 30 people and forced residents to scramble for cover in basements and makeshift bunkers, activists said.  The town of Qusair has been besieged for weeks by regime troops and pro-government gunmen backed by the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group. The siege is part of a withering offensives forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad have been pushing in recent weeks to regain control of the towns and villages along the Lebanese frontier. The region's strategic value is twofold: it links Damascus with the Mediterranean coastal enclave that is the heartland of President Bashar Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam; and rebels smuggle weapons and supplies from Lebanon across the porous frontier to opposition fighters in Syria. A government official in the nearby provincial capital of Homs said that regime troops have encircled the town and that "the offensive to liberate Qusair has begun." The official said government forces have advanced into the town, taking over the municipality building and other vital government institutions.

US rues Russian missiles sent to Damascus

05/18/13:  The BBC reports the US has chided Russia for what it calls an "unfortunate decision" to send missiles to the Syrian government. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Martin Dempsey said the shipment "will embolden the regime and prolong the suffering" that has killed 80,000. The sophisticated anti-ship missiles could be used to counter any future foreign military intervention, US officials told The New York Times. Some 1.5 million people have fled the conflict, says the UN refugee agency. Most have fled to Jordan and Lebanon, but not all have been registered yet, meaning the true total is likely to be far higher, according to the UNHCR. Meanwhile, Syria's national production has dropped by 40% and the number of people living below the poverty line has risen from two million to five million in just two years, according to the man in charge of the UN's plans for reconstructing Syria after the conflict. Abdullah al-Dardari, a former deputy prime minister in President Bashar al-Assad's administration, told the BBC that rebuilding what has been destroyed would cost up to $80bn.

UN: 3 peacekeepers abducted between Israel-Syria

05/17/13:  The Miami Herald reports armed men broke into a UN outpost in a buffer zone separating Israel and Syria and abducted three UN military observers, the UN peacekeeping chief said Thursday. Herve Ladsous told a group of reporters that the unarmed observers were held by the Syrian men for about five hours and released unharmed Wednesday morning. It was the third abduction of UN peacekeepers in the tense region since March and underlined again their vulnerability in the spillover of the conflict in Syria, which is now in its third year. Ladsous called the latest abduction "a very serious incident ... that illustrates the very difficult conditions that now prevail" in and around the area separating Syrian and Israeli forces which is supposed to be free of armed groups. UNTSO, the first UN peacekeeping mission, was established in May 1948 to help supervise a truce after an Arab-Israeli war that followed the breakup of Palestine into two states. According to the UN, its military observers, numbering about 150, have remained in the Middle East to monitor cease-fires, supervise armistice agreements, prevent isolated incidents from escalating and assist other UN peacekeeping operations.

Syria crisis: Russia 'sends sophisticated weapons'

05/17/13:  The BBC reports Russia has sent sophisticated anti-ship missiles to Syria, US media report.  The New York Times quotes unnamed US officials as saying the missiles could be used to counter any potential future foreign military intervention in Syria. Without confirming details, Russia's foreign minister said Russian supplies did not break any international rules. It comes amid growing alarm that chemical weapons may be being used in Syria, something US President Barack Obama has said would be "a red line". Meanwhile efforts continue to arrange an international conference on Syria. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met Mr Lavrov in Sochi on Friday to discuss the plans for the conference, which would aim to bring together the Syrian opposition and members of President Bashar al-Assad's government.

Report: Torture evidence found in Syrian prisons

05/17/13:  The Miami Herald reports rights activists visiting abandoned government prisons in the first Syrian city to come under rebel control have found torture devices and other evidence that detainees were abused there, Human Rights Watch said in a report Friday. Raqqa, in eastern Syria, was overrun in late February by rebels fighting to topple President Bashar Assad. The rebels facilitated the New York-based group's access to facilities that had belonged to a government security agency and military intelligence in late April. The HRW said its researchers found physical evidence that Syrians were tortured, including with a device which former detainees said was used to stretch or bend victims' arms and legs. The group also found documents indicating Raqqa residents were detained for legal actions like demonstrating or helping the injured. Rights groups and opposition activists have long claimed that civilians have been detained arbitrarily, tortured, and sometimes have disappeared since the uprising against Assad's regime began. HRW's findings appear to be one of the largest finds of physical evidence bolstering those claims to date.

UN calls for political transition in Syria

05/16/13:  The New York Times reports as the bloodletting continued unabated in Syria, the 193-member General Assembly passed a nonbinding resolution on Wednesday calling for a political transition to end the civil war there, putting the onus on the government of President Bashar al-Assad to stop the killing.  But even as the vote was being tallied, members recognized that it, like every other diplomatic initiative, would probably fail to stem the violence or coax out a political solution. While the resolution passed 107 to 12, it fell far short of the 133 votes in support of a similar resolution last August. The 59 abstentions reflected the widespread sentiment that the new initiative might not help push both parties toward new peace talks in Geneva proposed by the United States and Russia.

Turkey arrests four over bombings near Syrian border

05/16/13:  Reuters reports four suspects were arrested in Turkey late on Wednesday in connection with car bombings that killed 51 people in a town near the Syrian border at the weekend, state-run Anatolian news agency reported. The two bomb blasts in Reyhanli fanned fears that Syria's civil war is dragging in neighboring states. Damascus has denied Turkish allegations it was involved in the blasts. Turkish prosecutors sent eight suspects to a court in the southern city of Adana after questioning and the court released four, remanding the other four in custody, the agency said. It was not clear what charges they were facing. A total of 17 people have been detained in connection with the attacks and police were continuing to question the remaining suspects.

Weapons, ammunition shipments slowing to Syria’s moderate rebel factions

05/14/13:  The Miami Herald reports disagreements among the countries backing the rebels in Syria have led to a drop in weapons shipments, leaving rebels vulnerable to a government military offensive. The precise nature of the dispute is unclear, but one of the effects is that Saudi Arabia has stopped sending weapons via Turkey and has shifted its supply channels to northern Jordan. The result has been fewer guns and bullets for the rebels in northern and central portions of the country. The lack of military supplies has shown in the rebels’ lackluster performance against a government offensive that now threatens the city of Qusayr, which has been in rebel hands for the past year. Several villages near Qusayr have fallen to government forces in recent weeks along a smuggling route that rebels had long used to move supplies and people into Syria from Lebanon. Yazed al Hasan, a spokesman for the Farouq Battalions, a rebel group that began in the central Syrian province of Homs but whose influence now extends to the Turkish border, where it controls two crossing points, said the consequences of the drop in shipments from Turkey was clear. “The shortage of ammunition means losing the Qusayr front,” he said. He said Farouq had more than 1,000 fighters in Qusayr, which is now largely surrounded by Syrian soldiers and pro-government militia. Last week, the US State Department issued a statement expressing concern that the Syrian government had dropped leaflets telling “all civilians to evacuate or be treated as combatants.”

Arrests and calls for calm in Turkey

05/14/13:  The New York Times reports Turkish officials said Sunday that they had arrested nine people accused of carrying out twin bombings in this town near the Syrian border the day before, as the investigation moved at a clip that underscored the intense pressure on the government to contain the fallout from the attacks.  Officials said the detainees were all Turkish citizens and asserted that the group had been backed by the intelligence services of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Anxieties were high in Turkey’s ethnically and religiously mixed southern border region, where some saw the bombings — which killed 46 and injured more than 100 — as a menacing consequence of the government’s strong support for Syria’s rebels. Officials’ repeated calls for calm reflected fears not only of the conflict’s spreading across the border, but also of the contagion of its sectarian fighting, with massacres and forced relocations compounding the horrors of the war. Turkey, like Syria’s other neighbors, is increasingly worried that the conflict will inflame border areas, where tensions among various groups are deepening amid the flood of traumatized Syrian refugees.

Commentary: Should we arm the Syrian rebels?

05/11/13:  Foreign Policy published an article by Rosa Brooks discussing arming Syrian rebels. As tempting as it is, past experience suggests that arming the Syrian opposition could be every bit as hazardous, difficult and uncertain as putting US boots on the ground. I don't mean to suggest that arming the Syrian opposition should be taken off the table entirely. But if we proceed, we should do so only with the utmost caution: After all, history suggests that US efforts to arm insurgents tend not to end well. Like so many global tragedies, this is one with no simple solution. It's a mess, and any "solution" will be messy, as well. But as with any proposed intervention with humanitarian motives, "do no harm" should be our first priority. If we can help, we should, even if there is some risk involved -- but if our actions are likely to just make things worse, we should refrain, painful as that is.

Blasts kill dozens in Turkish border town of Reyhanli

05/11/13:  The BBC reports car bombs have killed 40 people and injured 100 in the Turkish town of Reyhanli, near the Syrian border, Turkey's interior minister says. Muammer Guler told Turkey's NTV that two bombs had gone off in the town near the town hall and post office. Video from the scene showed injured people being carried to safety in rubble-strewn streets, amid shattered buildings and twisted wrecks of cars. The town is an entry-point for refugees from the war in Syria. Local people attacked cars with Syrian number-plates and Syrian refugees after the attack, according to local media. Emergency services looked for possible victims buried under the debris. No group said they had carried out the attack. Responding to news of the bombing, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey would protect itself. "No-one should attempt to test Turkey's power. Our security forces will take all necessary measures."

Russia says no new plan to sell air defense systems to Syria

05/10/13:  Reuters reports Russia's foreign minister said on Friday Moscow had no new plans to sell an advanced air defense system to Syria, but left open the possibility it could deliver such systems under an existing contract. The Wall Street Journal this week reported that Israel had informed the United States a Russian deal was imminent to sell S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. That would significantly boost Syria's ability to stave off outside intervention in its civil war, such as the air strikes launched by Israel this month. Asked by a journalist in the Polish capital about the reports of a missile deal, Sergei Lavrov said: "Russia is not planning to sell. Russia already sold them a long time ago. It has signed the contracts and is completing deliveries, in line with the agreed contracts, of equipment which is anti-aircraft technology." The question referred to S-300 systems, but in his reply the minister did not specify whether the items already being delivered were S-300 complexes or another system. Lavrov, in Warsaw for a meeting on regional cooperation with his German and Polish counterparts, said the deliveries were in line with international law and for self-defense only. Russia is Syria's main arms supplier and has continued fulfilling defense contracts despite the civil war. Moscow, along with China, has blocked moves in the United Nations for international intervention to halt the bloodshed in Syria.

Philippines eyes Golan peacekeeper pull-out after abductions

05/10/13:  The BBC reports the Philippines' foreign minister says he wants to pull its peacekeepers from the UN force in the Golan Heights after four were seized by Syrian rebels. Albert del Rosario said the soldiers were being held as human shields and that peacekeepers' exposure was "beyond tolerable limits". The UN peacekeepers patrol the line separating Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. A total of 342 are Filipinos - about a third of the UN contingent. The four peacekeepers were abducted by Syrian rebels on Tuesday. Two months ago Syrian rebels held 20 Filipino peacekeepers in the same area for a few days before releasing them. Footage released online on Thursday showed the abducted peacekeepers and a rebel - thought to belong to the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, the group behind the March abduction - saying the four had been taken for their own safety because of fighting between Syrian rebels and government troops.

Commentary: The Art of Civil War

05/09/13:  Foreign Policy published an article by Fernande van Tets. In addition to the Syrian civil war's horrible human and economic costs, the conflict has also devastated Syria's cultural heritage. At a February UNESCO conference, the Syrian Directorate General of Antiquities and Museums (DGAM) called the looting more damaging than the fighting that is ravaging mosques, old houses, and Crusader castles. Only 3 percent of Syria's heritage sites remain outside areas of conflict, according to a map released by the US State Department's Humanitarian Information Unit. A 2012 Global Heritage Fund report also makes for grim reading: All UNESCO World Heritage sites in Syria have been affected by the war, from the old cities of Aleppo and Damascus to the Crusader castle Crac des Chevaliers to the Roman city of Bosra. Syria is an archaeological treasure trove, featuring antiquities from the Roman, Byzantine, Umayyad, and Ottoman periods. The country hosted up to 100 foreign archeological expeditions annually before the war started. The destruction of the millennia-old minaret of the Umayyad Mosque in Aleppo on April 24 is just the latest casualty of the violence. Looting has become more commonplace as the conflict has dragged on. "There wasn't that much evidence of looting this time last year. Now there is," says Durham University doctoral student Emma Cunliffe, author of the Global Heritage report. Similar pillaging followed the invasion of Iraq, the war in Libya, and even the uprising in Egypt. According to Maamoun Abdel-Karim, director of the DGAM, the antiquities directorate received at least 4,000 confiscated objects over the course of 2012, most of which were recovered on their way out of the country.

US fears Russia may sell air-defense system to Syria

05/09/13:  The New York Times reports the US, which is trying to bring Syrian rebels and the Syrian government to the negotiating table, is now increasingly worried that Russia plans to sell a sophisticated air defense system to Syria, American officials said Wednesday.  Russia has a long history of selling arms to the Syrians and has a naval base in the country. But the delivery of the Russian S-300 missile batteries would represent a major qualitative advancement in Syria’s air defenses. The system is regarded as highly effective and would limit the ability of the United States and other nations to operate over Syrian airspace or impose a no-fly zone. It is also able to track and fire missiles at multiple targets, including aircraft and some missiles. “There are concerns that this might happen,” said a senior United States official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, referring to the possible delivery of the S-300. A Western intelligence service has also warned that the Russians may soon send S-300 air defense batteries to Syria, said another American official who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence reports. Russia and Iran have supported Mr. Assad politically and have provided military support — support that American officials say has fortified Mr. Assad’s determination to hang on to power. American officials had been concerned that Russia might sell S-300 air defense batteries to Iran. But after the United States and Israel raised alarms, the weapons were not provided to the Iranians. 

Turkey deploys chemical defense team at border

05/09/13:  The Miami Herald reports Turkey's state-run agency says the country has stationed a team of eight experts to screen injured Syrians at the border to ensure they are not victims of any chemical attack. The Anadolu Agency says Thursday that a chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense vehicle, manned by the team, has been deployed at the main Cilvegozu border gate with Syria. The move follows allegations of possible chemical weapons use in Syria's civil war between President Bashar Assad's regime and rebels who want to overthrow him. The agency says the team examines injured Syrians for signs of chemical agents before sending them to nearby hospitals for treatment. Officials in Syria's capital, Damascus, deny claims the Assad regime has used chemical weapons. The rebels also deny any allegations of chemical weapon use.

Syrian internet back after 19-hour blackout

05/09/13:  The BBC reports the internet in Syria appears to have returned after a nationwide blackout knocked the country offline for more than 19 hours. Monitoring company Renesys noted signs of activity at around 14:30 GMT (17:30 local time) on Wednesday. Local state-run media had reported earlier that a "fault in optical fibre cables" was to blame for the blackout. However, experts dismissed this explanation as "unlikely". David Belson, of Akamai, said: "Our monitoring shows that Syria's international internet connectivity is through at least four providers, and published submarine cable maps show connectivity through three active cables. "As such, the failure of a single optical cable is unlikely to cause a complete internet outage for the country." Syria last experienced a shutdown for three days last November. Activists say the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is attempting to "silence" rebel communications. The Syrian government blamed that incident on "terrorists", but internet experts said it was more likely that the regime had shut down the web. The government has been fighting a bloody internal conflict for two years. Activists suggested at the time of the previous internet shutdown that the regime might have been planning a major offensive, or that it might have been attempting to prevent rebels from using the internet to co-ordinate themselves and communicate with the wider world.

Syrian rebels used Sarin nerve gas, not Assad’s regime: U.N. official

05/07/13:  The Washington Times reports testimony from victims strongly suggests it was the rebels, not the Syrian government, that used Sarin nerve gas during a recent incident in the revolution-wracked nation, a senior UN diplomat said Monday.  Carla de Ponte, a member of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, told Swiss TV there were “strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof,” that rebels seeking to oust Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad had used the nerve agent. But she said her panel had not yet seen any evidence of Syrian government forces using chemical weapons, according to the BBC, but she added that more investigation was needed. Damascus has recently facing growing Western accusations that its forces used such weapons, which President Obama has described as crossing a red line. But Ms. del Ponte's remarks may serve to shift the focus of international concern.

Syria crisis: UN peacekeepers seized on Golan Heights

05/07/13:  The BBC reports four Filipino UN peacekeepers have been abducted by armed men while patrolling in the demilitarised area between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. UN spokesmen said efforts were "under way to secure their release now". A Syrian rebel group, the Martyrs of Yarmouk, published a photo purportedly showing the four men and said they were being held for their own safety. It said there had been clashes and heavy shelling in the Yarmouk Valley, in the south of the separation zone. In March, the Martyrs of Yarmouk detained 21 UN observers from the Philippines, before releasing them three days later.

Israel bombs Syria as the US weighs options

05/04/13:  The New York Times reports Israel aircraft bombed a target in Syria overnight Thursday, an Obama administration official said Friday night, as United States officials said they were considering military options, including carrying out their own airstrikes. American officials did not provide details on the target of the Israeli strike. The Associated Press quoted Israeli officials Saturday as saying the target of the raid was a shipment of advanced missiles bound for the Hezbollah Shiite militia in Lebanon. While saying the shipment did not include chemical arms, the official described the missiles as “game changing,” an apparent reference to the capability of the missiles. In late January, Israel carried out airstrikes against SA-17 antiaircraft weapons, which the Israelis feared were about to be moved to Hezbollah. Israel has been worried that chemical weapons and advanced arms might be transferred to Hezbollah from Syria, and the Israeli military has made clear that it is prepared to take action to stop such shipments. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has long had a close relationship with Hezbollah, and Syria has been a gateway for shipping Iranian weapons to the militia. Hezbollah has sent trainers and advisers to Syria to help Mr. Assad with his war against the Syrian opposition, American officials say, and Syrian opposition officials report that Hezbollah fighters are also involved in the conflict. The Lebanese government confirmed on Saturday the Israeli warplanes flew over its airspace overnight Thursday, circling over Beirut and its suburbs, although it was not immediately clear if they were the same jets that carried out the raid in Syria.

US rethinks arming Syria rebels, says Chuck Hagel

05/04/13:  The BBC reports US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has acknowledged his government is no longer ruling out arming Syrian rebels. It is the first time a senior US official has said openly that the US is reconsidering its opposition to supplying weapons to rebel forces. President Barack Obama - who rejected such a proposal last year - said the US was now looking at "all options". Meanwhile, allegations are emerging that Syrian forces carried out summary executions near the city of Banias. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said it was trying to verify reports that troops had killed at least 50 people, including women and children, in the north-western village of al-Bayda. The activist group monitors human rights violations on both sides of the conflict via a network of contacts across Syria. Heavy fighting erupted on Thursday morning between government forces and rebels near the village.

Rate of killings in Syria peaks in April amid government counteroffensive

05/04/13:  The Miami Herald reports the pace of killing in Syria’s civil war reached a new high in April, with one human rights group counting an average of 196 deaths daily for the month. Overall, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 5,889 deaths in April, slightly lower than the 5,896 it tracked in March. But because April has one fewer day than March does, the rate of killing was higher: 196 per day in April versus 190 in March. More importantly, there was a sharp increase in civilian deaths. Of the deaths recorded in April, half of them _ 2,994 _ were of civilians, 1,677 were rebel fighters and 1,009 belonged to the army. The allegiances of the remainder couldn’t be determined. In March, the observatory had reported 1,780 civilians dead, just over 30 percent of the total. Rami Abdurrahman, the head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, cautioned that the totals are likely to be incomplete. Since the beginning of the conflict, the group, which relies on a network of activists on both sides of the conflict, has recorded 79,643 deaths that it says are verifiable.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/03/3378910/rate-of-killings-in-syria-peaks.html#storylink=cpy

Syrians flee 'massacres' in Baniyas and al-Bayda

05/04/13:  The BBC reports hundreds of Syrians have fled coastal areas where activists accuse government forces of carrying out massacres in a campaign of sectarian cleansing. Footage of mutilated and burnt bodies, allegedly from the town of Baniyas, have been posted online. Activists said 77 people had died in Baniyas, a day after 72 were killed at the nearby village of al-Bayda. The government said it had fought back "terrorist groups" and restored peace and security to the area. Activists have reported two massacres in two days in the coastal area of central Syria. They say the first was at the Sunni village of al-Bayda, which was overrun by regime forces on Thursday. Activists groups have named 72 people they say were massacred in al-Bayda, some of them women and children. Now they are reporting similar scenes at the Ras al-Nabaa quarter of the nearby coastal town of Baniyas, where they say at least 77 people died.

Besieged Syrian Leader makes rare public appearance

05/02/13:  The New York Times reports President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, apparently seeking to counter the impression of a leader in hiding after consecutive days of suspected insurgent bombings in his power base, Damascus, made a rare public appearance on Wednesday, visiting workers at an electric station. Mr. Assad mingled with workers at the Umayyad Electrical Station and congratulated them on the occasion of international Labor Day. Photographs showed Mr. Assad dressed in a dark suit as workers showed him the station. “They want us to be afraid,” Mr. Assad said in one television clip. “Well, we won’t be afraid.” As he spoke, loyalists in the background chanted, “May God protect you.” Mr. Assad, whose government is fighting an increasingly violent insurgency that grew out of his repression of peaceful political protests more than two years ago, is not often seen outside his heavily guarded presidential palace these days. His appearance followed an assassination attempt in the form of a car bombing on Monday aimed at his prime minister and a bombing on Tuesday that killed at least 13 people outside a former Interior Ministry building. The attacks were carried out in the heart of Damascus, the capital, which has remained basically under the control of Mr. Assad’s loyalist forces. His visit to the power station coincided with a new set of explosions in central Damascus. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group based in Britain but with a reporting network in Syria, said that rockets hit the neighborhood of Bab Mesalla, an area of shops and a transportation hub, and that a bomb detonated near the police headquarters on nearby Khalid bin Walid Street, a site of previous bomb attacks. SANA later confirmed the attacks, saying at least two people were killed and 28 were wounded. It attributed the attacks to terrorists, the Assad government’s blanket description for armed opponents.

Commentary: Obama's Syria subtext: I'm not George W. Bush

05/01/13: The Atlantic has this piece arguing that one of the principal goals in President Obama’s discussion yesterday of the use of chemical weapons in Syria was to remind the American people of the dangers inherent in a rush to war, symbolized by the colossal intelligence failure leading up to the Iraq War.  For all the talk of ‘red lines,’ Obama’s remarks served as a reminder that the former Senator from Illinois was one of the staunchest opponents of military action in Iraq and was elected 2008 partially on the platform that that war, launched based on faulty intelligence, was a mistake.  Obama was against a rush to war in Iraq 2002 and 2003, and he’s taking a similarly cautious approach in the complex environment of the Syrian conflict.  A poll released Tuesday found that majorities are across party lines decidedly opposed to American intervention in Syria right now, with 62 percent of the public agreeing that “the United States has no responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and antigovernment groups.”

Analysis: Obama's "red line" on Syria blurs

05/01/13: The Hill reports President Obama further blurred the “red line” he has imposed against Syria over chemical weapons on Tuesday, declining to lay out specific consequences if the line is crossed but reiterated that it would be a “game changer” for the entire international community.  Asked about possible US military action if it’s confirmed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have used chemical weapons, Obama said only that the administration would “rethink the range of options” available.  As the President sounded a cautious tone, however, there were reports Tuesday afternoon that he might be planning to take new steps, including that Obama is now ready to provide arms to the opposition, although he had not made a final decision.  National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden declined to confirm or deny that report.  Obama also spoke by phone Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a strong supporter of Assad, about the chemical weapons allegations.

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warns of further involvement in Syria

05/01/13: The New York Times reports Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah edged closer on Tuesday to acknowledging that the powerful Lebanese Shi‘ite organization’s fighters were battling rebels in neighboring Syria, threatening to drag Lebanon deeper into that conflict.  Nasrallah warned in a televised speech that Hezbollah could become more deeply involved in the future, and warned that Syria had “real friends” who would not allow it “to fall into the hands” of America or Israel.  As President Obama faces questions about whether the Syrian government has crossed what his administration has called the “red line” of using chemical weapons in the conflict, Nasrallah sketched some red lines of his own.  He warned of “very serious repercussions” if rebels destroyed or damaged the shrine of Sayida Zeinab, a revered pilgrimage site for many Muslims near Damascus.

Israeli minister says US should intervene in Syria

04/28/13: The Miami Herald reports an Israeli Cabinet minister has called on the US to intervene in the Syrian civil war after intelligence reports of chemical weapons use there.  The US has warned such weapons cross a ‘red line’ and last week said the weapons were probably used.  Israel says they were used.  Environment Minister Amir Peretz said Sunday action should have been taken long ago due to the high civilian death toll.  “We expect whoever defines red lines will also do what is needed, first and foremost the US and of course the entire international community,” he said.  His remarks do not reflect Israeli policy.  The White House says it is still trying to pin down definitive proof of the use of chemical weapons.

Obama vows "vigorous investigation" into Syria chemical weapons allegations

04/28/13: The Space War blog reports President Obama on Friday promised a “vigorous investigation” into reports Syrian forces fired chemical weapons and renewed his warning that proof of their use would be a “game-changer.”  Obama delivered the warning during talks at the White House with King Abdullah II of Jordan, as he faced rising political pressure for a military intervention in the vicious Syrian civil war.  He told reporters that US authorities had “some evidence that chemical weapons have been used on the population in Syria, these are preliminary assessments, they’re based on our intelligence-gathering.”  The President said Washington would pursue a “very vigorous investigation and would work with its partners towards a definitive answer on the chemical weapons issues as soon as possible.

Commentary: The legality of President Obama’s “red line” on Syrian chemical weapons

04/26/13:  Opinio Juris posted an analysis by Julian Ku concerning President Obama's red line on Syrian chemical weapons. New evidence that Syria has used chemical weapons against insurgents have spurred new calls here in the US for military action in Syria. First of all, there is that pesky US Constitution, Article I, Section 8 which many folks think grants the the US Congress the exclusive power to authorize US military force.  I don’t think the editorial envisions President Obama seeking congressional authorization, so it is probably assuming he would act under his inherent Commander-in-Chief powers. Second, there is the international law governing the use of force. I raised this question back in December, when President Obama drew his red line, suggesting that the self-defense justification under the UN Charter can’t work here.  This post drew two very good responses from experts in the field, one from Daniel Bethlehem (formerly the chief legal advisor to the UK’s Foreign Office) and the other from Ashley Deeks (former legal advisor to the U.S. State Department, now UVA Law Prof). A unilateral US attack is very possible, and may even be desirable.  But legality is going to have to be finessed in ways that critics of the Iraq War should not be happy with.

Covert help for Syria's rebels in Jordan

04/26/13:  The BBC reports more evidence has come to light of Syrian rebels receiving training from Western sources in neighbouring Jordan - but the Jordanian Islamists are also taking an interest in the conflict, as the BBC's Gabriel Gatehouse reports. Western governments and their allies in the Middle East are worried about the increasing dominance of radical Islamist groups in the Syrian conflict. The US on Sunday pledged to increase what it calls "non-lethal aid" to the more secular-minded Free Syrian Army. But there have also been reports - officially denied - that US military personnel have been training select groups of FSA fighters in neighbouring Jordan. In a nondescript block of flats in an anonymous Jordanian town, we met a senior commander from the FSA. He agreed to talk to the BBC only on condition of anonymity. "The lessons focused on small and medium arms, as well as mortars, RPGs [rocket propelled grenades,]" he said. The commander had not attended the training courses himself. But some of his fighters had and he had been asked to provide a list of names to be put forward for more training in the future. He said the training took place at a military facility outside the Jordanian capital. This information has been corroborated by other sources in the FSA, who told the BBC that fighters were trained in relatively small groups, on courses lasting two weeks.

US: Intelligence points to small-scale use of sarin in Syria

04/25/13:  CNN reports the United States has evidence that the chemical weapon sarin has been used in Syria on a small scale, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday. But numerous questions remain about the origins of the chemicals and what impact their apparent use could have on the ongoing Syrian civil war and international involvement in it. When asked if the intelligence community's conclusion pushed the situation across President Barack Obama's "red line" that could potentially trigger more USinvolvement in the Syrian civil war, Hagel said US officials are still assessing the situation and need all the facts. In a letter to lawmakers, the White House cautioned that given "the stakes involved and what we have learned from our own recent experience, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient. Only credible and corroborated facts that provide us with some degree of certainty will guide our decision making." The letter, sent to US Sens. Carl Levin and John McCain, said that intelligence analysts have concluded "with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin." Hagel said that US officials have not been able to confirm the origins of the sarin, but that they believe it originated with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which has been battling a rebellion for more than two years. The announcement comes a few days after an Israeli intelligence official said Damascus was using weapons banned under international law against its own people in the country's civil war. Syria has said rebels have used chemical weapons.

Israeli official: Syria using chemical weapons

04/23/13:  CNN reports the Syrian government is using chemical weapons against rebel forces, the head of the Israel Defense Forces' intelligence research and analysis division said Tuesday. "In all likelihood, they used sarin gas," Brig. Gen. Itai Brun told a conference in Tel Aviv. This comes as a civil war between the government and rebels rages across Syria, which borders Israel. One of the main characteristics of the recent events in Syria is the increasing use of ground-to-ground missiles, rockets and chemical weapons by the Syrian regime," Brun said, according to quotes provided by the IDF. "According to our professional assessment, the regime has used deadly chemical weapons against armed rebels on a number of occasions in the past few months. For instance, on March 19, 2013, victims suffered from shrunken pupils, foaming from the mouth and other symptoms which indicate the use of deadly chemical weapons. The type of chemical weapons was likely sarin, as well as neutralizing and nonlethal chemical weapons." The accusation came a day after Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, in a news conference in Jerusalem with US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, appeared less certain. Asked about possible chemical weapons use in Syria, Yaalon said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said that allowing any "rogue elements to put their hands on chemical weapons from the Syrian chemical arsenal" would represent a red line.

 

US to deploy Patriot missile batteries on Jordan-Syria border

04/20/13:  The Washington Times reports an unnamed Jordan source said the US military agreed on Friday to the country’s request to put Patriot missile batteries along the border with Syria. A London newspaper quoting the Jordan source said the United States was sending two Patriot missile batteries to the area, The Times of Israel reported. The source also said the Patriot missile batteries would be transferred from sites in Qatar and Kuwait, and placed in strategic border spots that could best serve – and protect – the kingdom. Just a few weeks ago, Patriot missile defense batteries were put along the Turkey-Syria border to protect Ankara from mortar fire. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Chuck Hagel announced the US would send 200 troops to Jordan to help with violence along the Syrian border. Jordanian Information Minister Mohammed Momani said to The Associated Press that the 200 troops were welcome, and would “bolster our training and defense capabilities in light of the deterioration in Syria."

UN asks Sec. Council for cross-border Syria aid OK

04/19/13:  The Miami Herald reports the UN's chief humanitarian official asked the Security Council to approve cross-border relief operations into Syria to deliver aid to millions suffering from the country's civil war. UN agency chiefs for humanitarian affairs, refugees, women in conflict, and children in conflict used the Security Council briefing to speak over the heads of the deadlocked council nations to appeal to the world for support. The agency chiefs launched their campaign Monday with an op-ed in The New York Times that said, "There still seems to be an insufficient sense of urgency among the governments and parties that could put a stop to the cruelty and carnage in Syria." The Security Council has been stalemated for months on Syria. Western and Arab nations blame the conflict on President Bashar Assad's government. Russia insists on assigning equal blame to the Syrian rebel opposition, and has cast vetoes, along with China, to block draft council resolutions. The president of the council, Rwandan Ambassador Eugene Richard Gasana, late on Thursday read out a media statement saying that the council insists that "the escalating violence is completely unacceptable and must end immediately."

Israel ready to act on Syria weapons, warns Netanyahu

04/18/13:  The BBC reports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the BBC that Israel has a right to prevent weapons from falling into the wrong hands in Syria. He said that if terrorists seized anti-aircraft and chemical weapons they could be "game changers" in the region. There have been growing calls for the international community to arm rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad. But there is increasing concern that Islamist militants could use such weapons to further their own causes. Israel has said its policy is not to get involved in the Syrian conflict. But in recent months it has retaliated following Syrian fire into Israeli-controlled areas in the Golan Heights. Israel first occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and later annexed the territory in a move that is not internationally recognised. Mr Netanyahu, in an exclusive interview with the BBC's Lyse Doucet, said Israel's concern was "which rebels and which weapons?" "The main arms of concern to us are the arms that are already in Syria - these are anti-aircraft weapons, these are chemical weapons and other very, very dangerous weapons that could be game changers," he said. "They will change the conditions, the balance of power in the Middle East. They could present a terrorist threat on a worldwide scale. It is definitely our interest to defend ourselves, but we also think it is in the interest of other countries."

Syria conflict: UK concerns over chemical weapon use

04/16/13:  The BBC reports the UK is increasingly concerned there is evidence that chemical weapons have been used in Syria. Foreign Secretary William Hague said the claims must be investigated and the perpetrators held to account. Meanwhile, soil samples gathered from random sites in Syria, have been smuggled to the UK for testing, British intelligence sources told the BBC. The evidence suggests "some use of chemical weapons"' but it is not clear by which side, the sources said. Syria is believed to have stockpiles of mustard gas and the highly toxic nerve agent sarin. Only a handful of countries have failed to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which internationally bans their use. Syria is one of them.

Artillery shells from Syria hit Lebanese border town

04/16/13:  CNN reports Lebanon says it deployed troops near its border with Syria Sunday after artillery shells hit a Lebanese border village. One person was killed after shells from Syria hit the town of Qasr, the Lebanese Army said in a statement. Several homes were destroyed, and three people were injured, the military said. The Lebanese military did not release additional details about the incident. Lebanon's National News Agency reported that a 13-year-old was killed when rockets from Syria hit the region Sunday. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman condemned the violence, saying in a statement on his website that rockets had fallen near Qasr's mosque. "These kinds of acts have only resulted in the deaths of innocent Lebanese who have nothing to do with the ongoing conflict taking place outside their country," he said. The war in Syria has been raging since March 2011 when protesters, partly inspired by Arab Spring uprisings in the region, began demonstrating for more freedom. That movement quickly morphed into a movement against President Bashar al-Assad, who was appointed president by Syria's parliament in 2000 after his father died. The government responded with a brutal crackdown. In February, the United Nations estimated that 70,000 people had been killed in the fighting.

Syria: Proxy war heats up as endgame inches closer

04/13/13:  The BBC reports as Syria's fragmentation gathers pace and the demise of the regime apparently inches ever closer, competition between outside powers backing one side or the other is heating up, and proxy wars over the country's future are intensifying. The latest example is the attempt by al-Qaeda to put its stamp publicly on the Nusra Front in Syria and encourage it to push for an Islamic state there, while its more moderate or secular partners in the common drive to oust the regime are committed to democracy. It's a reminder that one aspect of the complex Syrian imbroglio is a proxy struggle between the US-led western world and al-Qaeda international. Its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the man who succeeded Osama Bin Laden, on Sunday urged jihadis in Syria to strive for an Islamic state that would be a foundation-stone for a wider regional caliphate. That was followed two days later by al-Qaeda in Iraq announcing that the Nusra Front was one of its branches, and that the two were merging into a single Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (the Levant).

Syria crisis: Al-Nusra pledges allegiance to al-Qaeda

04/11/13:  The BBC reports the leader of the al-Nusra Front, a jihadist group fighting in Syria, has pledged allegiance to the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani said the group's behaviour in Syria would not change as a result. Al-Nusra claims to be have carried out many suicide bombings and guerrilla attacks against state targets. Al-Nusra has been designated as a terrorist organisation by the US. Debates among Western leaders over whether to arm Syria's rebels have often raised the concern of weapons ending up in the hands of groups such as al-Nusra. Even though Mr Jawlani said in the statement that al-Nusra had received help from the Islamic State in Iraq group, correspondents say al-Nusra clearly does not want to highlight those ties. Al-Nusra is seen as trying to win the support of the population in rebel-held areas, and also to keep the goodwill of the other opposition groups who do not want to be associated with al-Qaeda. Spokesmen for the Free Syrian Army, considered the main armed opposition group in Syria, reacted to Wednesday's statement by distancing themselves from al-Nusra.

Judge rules against veteran who fought alongside Syrian rebels

04/09/13:  The New York Times reports in his brief but sensational sojourn in the Syrian civil war, Eric G. Harroun made a bit of a splash. He loaded Facebook and YouTube with scenes from the battlefield and gibes at the government of President Bashar al-Assad. In Web postings by both sides in the bloody conflict, he was “The American” — a former Army private from Arizona fighting with the Syrian opposition. But in federal court here on Monday, it was clear just how drastically Mr. Harroun’s luck had turned. Prosecutors said Mr. Harroun, 30, who is accused of firing a rocket-propelled grenade while fighting alongside a designated terrorist group, might ultimately face charges carrying a minimum sentence of 30 years and a maximum of the death penalty. A judge declined to release him to home detention in his mother’s custody in Arizona, as the defense sought and a pretrial investigation proposed. Magistrate Judge Ivan D. Davis said Mr. Harroun had “actively and knowingly participated in fighting with a group the U.S. has designated as a terrorist organization,” the Nusra Front, which the United States considers part of Al Qaeda’s branch in Iraq. Even though he was fighting to oust Mr. Assad — a goal the United States fervently supports — his brief alliance with the Nusra Front “makes him a dangerous individual,” Judge Davis said. He noted prosecution claims that Mr. Harroun had said after leaving Syria that he wanted to go to Palestine and fight against the Israelis.

Syria lashes out at Jordan and Turkey

04/05/13:  The New York Times reports Syria lashed out at Turkey and Jordan on Thursday for what it called their duplicitous work in fomenting the Syrian rebellion, accusing the Turkish prime minister of chronic lies and telling the Jordanians they were “playing with fire” in letting insurgents arm and train on their soil — a possible hint of retaliation. The criticisms in the state news media appeared to be part of an intensified propaganda response to new rebel gains in the two-year-old conflict and President Bashar al-Assad's further isolation. It included snippets of an interview that Mr. Assad had given to a Turkish television station, in which he also denounced the Arab League for granting Syria’s seat to the opposition coalition bent on overthrowing him. Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was once close to Mr. Assad, has turned into an ardent enemy and repeatedly called for his departure. Turkey is also housing more than 250,000 Syrian refugees and is helping the Free Syrian Army insurgent group, although the Turks insist they are not providing weapons. Syria, which shares a 550-mile border with Turkey, has frequently accused Turkey of arming the rebels.

Syrian helicopter fires rockets 'inside Lebanon'

04/04/13:  The BBC reports a Syrian helicopter has crossed into Lebanon and fired two rockets near a town home to thousands of Syrian refugees, reports say. No casualties or damage were reported after the incident on the outskirts of Arsal, which is close to Syria. Syrian forces have previously fired mortars across the border and crossed into Lebanon to attack rebels. Lebanon's president described an air attack last month as an unacceptable violation of Lebanese sovereignty. The latest incident has further raised tension in an area where the divisive effect of the Syrian conflict has already been deeply felt, the BBC's Jim Muir reports from Beirut. The UN estimates that at least 70,000 people have been killed in Syria since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began, just over two years ago. Opposition activists say more than 6,000 people died in March alone which, if confirmed, would make it the deadliest month of the conflict.

Iraq says will increase searches of Iran-Syria flights in its airspace after US criticism

04/01/13: The blog Space War reports Iraq will step up searches of Iranian flights over its airspace to Syria, days after US Secretary of State John Kerry publicly criticized Baghdad for turning a blind eye to them.  But while Prime Minister Nuri al-Malik’s spokesman spoke of newly tightened restrictions, the head of Iraq’s civil aviation authority acknowledged that no planes had been searched since October.  “Because of a lot of information which referred to transportation of weapons, we have increased the activity of inspections,” Maliki spokesman Ali Mussawi said Saturday.  “We will carry out more random searches, to be assured that there is no weapons transfer.”  Kerry said in Baghdad that he “made very clear to [Maliki] that the overflights from Iran are in fact helping to sustain [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad and his regime.”

Ex-soldier is charged with aiding terrorist group

03/29/13:  The New York Times reports a former American soldier was charged Thursday with fighting alongside a terrorist group that is battling the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, whose ouster the United States has sought for nearly two years. The soldier, Eric Harroun, 30, of Phoenix, who served in the United States Army from 2000 to 2003, is accused of entering Syria in January and participating in attacks on Assad forces led by the Al Nusra Front, which American officials say is part of Al Qaeda in Iraq, a designated terrorist group. Mr. Harroun, who posted reports about his time in Syria on Facebook and YouTube, was charged in Alexandria, Va., with “conspiring to use a destructive device outside the United States,” a crime that can carry a life sentence. He was arrested Wednesday after arriving at Dulles International Airport and made an initial appearance in Federal District Court on Thursday. According to an affidavit filed in the case, Mr. Harroun told an FBI agent, Paul Higginbotham, that he was part of an “RPGteam,” firing rocket-propelled grenades, which qualify as a “destructive device” under the law. The charge does not have any connection to terrorism, though more charges could be filed later.

UN treaty to control arms sales hits snag

03/29/13:  The New York Times reports the global effort to regulate the sale of conventional weapons suffered a significant but not fatal setback on Thursday after Iran, Syria and North Korea opposed the draft Arms Trade Treaty, blocking the consensus needed for passage after years of arduous negotiations. Achieving consensus among all 193 member states of the United Nations is considered a monumental task, but it was hoped that it would be possible in this case because so many countries supported the idea of trying to regulate the $70 billion annual industry at the root of much death and destruction. The treaty would require states exporting conventional weapons to develop criteria that would link exports to avoiding human rights abuses, terrorism and organized crime. It would also ban shipments if they were deemed harmful to women and children. After Iran and North Korea voted against the draft treaty, Peter Woolcott, the Australian ambassador who was the president of the treaty conference, suspended the meeting. When it resumed, Syria voted against the treaty as well. In the absence of consensus, it was expected that the treaty would be sent to the General Assembly as early as next week for approval. That is considered a weaker, but no less binding, manner of getting it passed. After General Assembly passage, the treaty would still require ratification by 50 member states before it could take effect.